Keeneland Best Bets
Now that we are though the points races for the Derby, it’s time to wait for the gate draw which is just over a week. I’ll have articles leading up to the Kentucky Derby and there will be plenty of discussion on VSiN on the first Saturday in May, but the beauty of horse racing is it never stops! We’ve got another loaded card from Keeneland this Saturday so let’s dive into my Keeneland best bets!
Elkhorn Stakes, Keeneland, Race #8
The Elkhorn Stakes features the return of #4 Bold Act to the US after a dominant win overseas. The last time we saw him in the States, Bold Act romped over this course and distance in the Grade 3 Sycamore. When Charlie Appleby ships over, you have to respect his horses, and this one is no different.
The other Charlie Appleby entrant in the #11 Silver Knott. He has been stateside for his last five races and has yet to win in the US, but the setup today could be just what the doctor ordered. Silver Knot is the only horse in the race with any early speed and we have seen speed hold exceptionally well over this Keeneland turf course the last few weeks. The barn has always believed this is an ultra-talented horse. This is would a great spot to break through at a nice price of 8-1.
This race also marks the return of #3 Highland Chief who has not been seen at the races in over 500 days. He’s had success at Keeneland in the past, winning the Sycamore in 2022, but the time off has to be a concern. His best is good enough to win this, I am just not optimistic that is what we will see after such an extended layoff.
#10 Missed the Cut comes in winner to two straight at Santa Anita, but both of those were smaller fields with less talent than this race. You have to consider this a jump in class due to the additional field size and the fact that there are simply better turf horses on the East Coast than what is currently running in California. If you believe he can transfer his Cali form to Keeneland, then he could be tough.
Picks: 4-11-3-10
Keeneland Best Bets:
$50 Exacta 4 – 11
Ben Ali Stakes, Keeneland, Race #9
Last year’s Derby darling #4 Kingsbarns will make his 2024 Stakes debut in this spot after winning a seven-furlong allowance at Gulfstream Park. He will need to improve off that effort to win, but that should be expected since it was clearly a prep for a longer race and trainer Todd Pletcher rarely has his horse cranked up first off the bench in those spots.
#9 War Campaign will also enter this race second off a layoff after running a good second behind First Mission at Oaklawn. While the post is not ideal, he does project to sit a good stalking trip in this spot and is a consistent horse. He gets a jockey upgrade today as well, with Tyler Gaffalione taking over the reins.
#1 Time for Trouble exits the same race as War Campaign, where he ran an even third about a half-length behind War Campaign. He upgrades his pilot to Prat today and has had success at Keeneland with one win in two starts.
If you are price hunting, take a look at #2 Surly Furious. He seemed to turn a corner at Turfway Park, stringing together the best races of his career. He will need to find that form on dirt, but if it transfers over, then he is dangerous at a price.
Picks: 4-9-1-2
Keeneland Best Bets:
$50 Win #4
Spot plays:
Keeneland Race #7 – $50 Win #4Keeneland Race #10 – $50 Win #1
