Kentucky Derby Post Draw
It’s finally time! Twenty horses, two minutes and the best horse betting opportunity of the year! I will have coverage on VSiN.com and live on VSiN all week, but let’s start by looking at the horses that won and lost the post draw.
No. 17 Fierceness
Let’s kick this off by talking about the horse and gate that will lead much of the discussion this week. With the scratch of Encino, Fierceness will move inside one post and break from the 16 hole. Generally, you are looking to break between 5 and 16 in the derby, so the draw wasn’t too bad originally and got better with the scratch. Additionally, Fierceness prefers to be outside of horses and has the tactical speed to be forward without getting in trouble. This was as close to an ideal draw as he could have gotten.
No. 2 Sierra Leone
Unlike Fierceness, this was a disaster. Yes, he was always going to come from the back of the pack, but to draw inside basically guarantees that he will be last under the wire the first time. He is a larger horse who is great when he gets going but is not the most athletic colt. He cannot afford to get stopped at any point in the race if he’s going to win. The trip will have to be absolutely perfect from the half-point on and that’s a tall ask with 19 horses to maneuver around.
Other draws I like
Two spots that have consistently produced winners and horses that have hit the board in the Derby are the 7 and 8 posts, and they are live once again this year. Honor Marie drew the 7 post, which should fit his running style well. He is projected to drop back but should not get forced all the way to the rear of the field and projects to sit two wide on the first turn giving him more options heading into the backstretch.
Just a Touch, the No. 8 horse, may be the big winner of the draw. He projects to have a stalking trip and the 8 is a wonderful spot to get that from. He will have to deal with TO Password directly to his outside who projects to go, but if he can sit right behind the leaders and get first run on the far turn, he will be live.
Draws I did not like
Two stick out here. The first is the 19 Resilience. He ran wonderfully in his last race, but that was from an inside draw sitting right behind the speed. Now he will be hung wide and lose ground on both turns. He was a horse I was considering in trifectas and superfectas before the draw and one I will leave out after.
The 4 Catching Freedom is the other that I hated. He was a win contender for me if he had drawn further outside, but now he will have to weave through traffic to win. Last year we saw Angel of Empire, with the same connections and style, run third from the outside and win the race to multiple holes because of the draw. Prat’s job will be more difficult this year with more traffic, but he’s been great in the Derby, so we will see if he can piece together another great ride.
Prices to watch for
Let’s quickly touch on a couple of horses I like to round out the trifecta and superfecta at big numbers. The 5, Catalytic, is 30-1 on the morning line and trying to turn for the second time in his career. He ran very well in the Florida Derby while wide the whole way. He needs to improve again but has the talent and should get the trip.
Just Steel, the 6, ran second behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby and always tries hard. Distance isn’t an issue and he has tactical speed to stay out of trouble. This is a classic example of a horse that is very unlikely to win but has a decent chance to hit the board.
Now that he’s drawn into the field, Epic Ride, the 21, could be a player in the underneath bets at 30-1. The post is awful, but he ran a very good third behind Sierra Leone and Just a Touch last time out and both will be 1/10th of his odds on race day.
