Mr Ed’s Churchill Downs Best Bets
Welcome to Kentucky Oaks Day and Mr. Ed’s Churchill Downs best bets.
WHO TO WATCH AT CHURCHILL DOWNS over the next two days. When in doubt about which horse to bet, you can rely on these top trainers to visit the Winner’s Circle: Steve Asmussen (4 entries today), Phil Bauer (5), Chad Brown (3), Brad Cox (8) and Todd Pletcher (4). As for riders, you can count on Irad Ortiz (10), Jose Ortiz (8), Tyler Gaffalione (11), Frankie Dettori (6) and Johnny Velazquez (10) to win their share of races.
DOUBLE DOWN: This oft-overlooked bet on Oaks Day is one of my favorites — it’s the Oaks-Derby, two-day Double. Take the horses you like in the Oaks on Friday and link them up with horses you like in the Derby on Saturday. If you have the Oaks winner on your ticket, you can go to sleep Friday night, comforted by the fact that you have a live ticket in your pocket for the Derby on Saturday. Try it. And remember, VSiN is all about cashing tickets. (See Mr. Ed’s Oaks-Derby double below).
MR. ED’S TOP SELECTIONS AT CHURCHILL DOWNS
(First post at 10:30 a.m. ET/7:30 a.m. PT)
Race 3 (11:30 a.m. ET/8:30 a.m. PT) — $134K Optional Claiming for 3YOs & up at 1 mile
My selection is #8 ARTHUR’S RIDE (3-1 morning line). The talented colt was sidelined on the Derby trail last year. After more than a year on the bench, patient trainer Bill Mott brought him back at Gulfstream in March, where he won, firing a 101 speed rating. Colt looks like the real deal. Alvarado returns to the saddle. I like two others to round out the Exacta, horse-for-course #5 INJUNCTION (5-1) and veteran #11 EMPTY TOMB (8-1).
CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BETS: $10 to Win and $5 Exacta Box of 5,8,11. ($40)
Race 5 (12:43 p.m. ET/9:43 a.m.) — G1 $1 million La Troienne Stakes for fillies & mares 4YOs & up at 1 1/16-mile
Mr. Ed’s choice is #5 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (5-2 morning line). Another horse for the course (3 for 4 over the track), the classy 4YO veteran, has banked nearly $2 million. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione in saddle for trainer Brendan Walsh.
CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BETS: $10 to Win & and $5 Exacta Box of 4,5,6 ($40)
Race 7 (2:09 p.m. ET/:11:09 a.m. PT — G2 $750K Alysheba Stakes for 4YOs & up at 1 1/16-mile
I like #7 TAPIT TRICE (7-2 morning line) for sharp trainer Todd Pletcher. Keys to victory are the addition of the nation’s top rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., and a cutback in distance.
CHURCHILL DOWNS BET OF THE DAY: $20 to Win. ($20)
Races 9-11 (4:04 p.m. ET/1:04 p.m. PT) — G2 $600K Eight Belles Stakes for 3YO fillies at 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed likes the following multi-race wager:
R9: 1,7
R10: 4,9
R11: 5,8,11,13,14
CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BET: $2 Pick 3 ($50)
Race 11 (5:51 p.m. ET/2:51 p.m. PT) — G1 $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks for 3YO fillies & mares at 1 ⅛-mile
Mr. Ed likes speedy #8 TARIFA (7-2 morning line) to prevail in super-competitive stakes for sophomore coeds. Trained by Brad Cox, she has won four of five starts, including the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Her most recent five-furlong work indicates she’s ready to rock n’ roll with top rider Flavien Prat aboard. Four other talented starters, #5 THORPEDO ANNA (5-1), #11 WAYS AND MEANS (5-1), #13 JUST F Y I (9-2) and #14 LESLIE’S ROSE (4-1) expected to provide more-than-ample competition.
CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BETS: Wager $20 to Win and $5 Exacta boxes of 8/5,11,13,14 ($60)
OAKS-DERBY TWO-DAY DOUBLE
Race 11 Friday (5:51 p.m. ET/2:51 p.m. PT ) & Race 12 Saturday (6:57 p.m. ET/3:57 p.m. PT)
OAKS Picks: #5 THORPEDO ANNA, #8 TARIFA, #11 WAYS & MEANS & #13 JUST F Y I, #14 LESLIE’S ROSE
DERBY Picks: #1 DORNOCH, #2 SIERRA LEONE, #7 HONOR MARIE, #8 JUST A TOUCH and #17 FIERCENESS.
MY CHURCHILL DOWNS BEST BET OF THE WEEKEND
$2 Daily Double: 5,8,11,13,17 with 1,5,7,8,17 ($50)
TOTAL WAGERS: $252
TRACKING MR. ED: Another disappointing Saturday last week. The only news worth reporting is that once again, I split two potentially sizable Exactas with my picks finishing first and third and lost my Pick 3 to a 44-1 bomb from nowhere.
