Mr. Ed’s Keeneland Best Bets
TRACKING MR. ED: With March Madness ending Monday night and The Masters teeing off Thursday, should sports gambling degenerate Mr. Ed dare ask for anything more? Count on it. VSiN handicapper welcomes a month of first-class racing at Keeneland, each April and October, filled with betting, bourbon and bluegrass. A younger Mr. Ed cherished nearly five decades of annual August treks to Saratoga Springs, NY. Unfortunately, travel limitations prevent any future trips to historic Saratoga. However, an older and definitely wiser Mr. Ed returns to Lexington, KY, this weekend for three days at his now-favorite racing venue. If Saratoga is the king of all American tracks, then Keeneland is the crown jewel. If you have a chance to visit the bluegrass oval, expect superior service, quality racing, top jockeys and trainers, memorable eats and more than enough bourbon to toast all your winners. Let’s look at my Keeneland best bets.
WIN SOME, LOSE SUM: Last week’s bets produced mixed results. Mr. Ed cashed tickets on a $93 Exacta and the chalky Arkansas Derby winner Muth for $66. He also had a few bad beats. At day’s end, his net loss on $205 of selections was $46 — less than the cost of parking, admission, a seat, a sandwich and beer at most tracks for a day at the races. No one likes to cash tickets more than Mr. Ed, who is anticipating a profitable return to Keeneland.
TRAINERS & RIDERS: Wesley Ward, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott and Brad Cox all appear to have loaded stables for excellent April meet. The Bros. Ortiz, Flavien Prat, Tyler Gaffalione, Luis Saez and Joel Rosario all will contend for riding title.
MR. ED’S DERBY TOP 10: (1) Fierceness; (2) Dornoch*; (3) Muth+; Endlessly; (4) Just Steel; (5) Sierra Leone*; (6) Deterministic*; (7) Catching Freedom; (8) Encino* (9) Stronghold* and (10) Just a Touch*.
*competing today
+pending Baffert litigation
MR. ED’S TOP SELECTIONS AT KEENELAND (first post 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Race 6 (3:40 p.m. ET/12:40 p.m. PT) — G3 $300K Commonwealth Stakes at 7 furlongs, 4 YOs & up
Mr. Ed likes #2 WICO (4-1 morning line). Any time sprint specialist Wesley Ward teams up with the nation’s top rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., I pay attention. Word from the backside points to a maximum effort by the expensive son of No Nay Never. If he breaks in front, he’ll stay in front.
Keeneland Best Bet: $20 to Win and $5 Exacta boxes of 2/6,8,9. ($50)
Race 7 (4:14 p.m. ET/1:14 p.m. PT) —G2 $400K Appalachian Stakes at a mile on the turf for 3YO fillies
I like a trio in this super-competitive grass contest: #6 AUSTERE (morning line 10-1) for the Walsh barn; #9 BUCHU (4-1) for sneaky-good trainer Bauer, and #10 POUNCE (3-1) for the Casse stable.
Keeneland Best Bet: $5 Exacta box of 6,9,10. ($30)
Race 8 (4:48 p.m. ET/1:48 p.m. PT) — G1 $600K Madison Stakes at 7 furlongs for fillies and mares, 4YOs & up
Mr. Ed likes #8 VAHVA (2-1 morning line) for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who picks up the riding services of Irad Ortiz Jr. The consistent high-class daughter of Gun Runner has won here before and speed numbers point to a repeat effort.
MR. ED’S BEST BET OF THE DAY: $20 to win. ($20)
Race 9 (5:20 p.m. ET/2:20 p.m. PT) — G2 $350K Shakertown Stakes at 5 ½ furlongs on the grass for 3YOs and up
I like #3 MISCHIEF MAGIC (7-2 morning line) for outstanding European trainer Charlie Appleby. She has banked more than $750K racing primarily vs. top fillies overseas. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the irons. With speed to spare, it’s a magic trick.
Keeneland Best Bet: $10 Win & Place. ($20)
Race 10 (5:52 p.m. ET/2:52 p.m. PT) — G1 $1 Million Blue Grass Stakes at 1 ⅛ mile for 3 YOs
Mr. Ed looks for #4 DORNOCH (3-1 morning line) to score a VSiN.com hat trick. Winner of his last three for favorite trainer Danny Gargan, the sophomore appears fully cranked following a recent bullet workout. Luis Saez rides again. Knock, knock — it’s Dornoch on his way to Kentucky Derby.
Keeneland Best Bet: $20 to Win and play 4/1,6,11 Exacta boxes for $5. ($50)
TOTAL WAGERS: $170
SPOT PLAYS:
Aqueduct Race 10 — The Wood Memorial, #9 TUSCAN SKY (4-1)
Santa Anita Race 10 — Santa Anita Derby, #3 STRONGHOLD (5-2)
MASTERS MADNESS: Here are five Mr. Ed will be backing — Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Viktor Howland and Max Homa.
