Santa Anita Picks:
Santa Anita rolls out its new California Cup races featuring four grades stakes and the Grade 1 Win and You’re In California Crown Stakes featuring the best male horses on the West Coast. There is also a special all-stakes Pick Five with 15% takeout, and a $1 minimum take should attract a very nice pool.
California Crown Stakes, Race #9, Santa Anita
All eyes will be on the trio of Bob Baffert runners who have the pedigree to win this race. #3 National Treasure will be one of the post time favorites and has run in all of the big spots after a tough 2nd in the Breeders Cup last year. His last race is one you can throw out. He isn’t great on an off track. Even with all that, I’ve got distance concerns going the mile and an eighth today. His best distance is one mile, and this is about as far as he can get when he controls the pace, which will be tough today.
#5 Muth has had a bumpy three-year-old season. After winning the Arkansas Derby win, he was sidelined until a good, but not overly impressive win in the Shared Belief at Del Mar. Baffert choosing to run him back here tips his hand around expectations. The plan to run here and then possibly the Breeders Cup is a lot to ask for a horse who struggled to get back to the track. That means he expects the horse to run well here.
#2 Subsanador steps up in class for trainer Richard Mandella after a huge effort at Monmouth. This will be second off the layoff, and his style fits perfectly for this race, which should have early pace. He is also highly likely to take a step forward in his second start off the layoff.
#6 Senor Buscador will be running late. He’s won in big spots before and has the talent to do so again today. The pace will be the key for Buscador. He will need Muth and National Treasure to soften each other up to win, but it isn’t likely since they are both Baffert’s.
Santa Anita Picks: 2-5-6-3
Bets: $50 Win #2
Eddie D Stakes, Race #8, Santa Anita
It’s turf sprint time down the hill, one of my favorite styles of race. Speed is important but not imperative to win. #2 First Peace will shorten up after running in back-to-back mile stakes but has had success over this course and distance. He can sit close to the place and pounce and his draw today is perfect to run his race. The price is right at 4-1 and the cutback should prep him well to get the distance.
#1 Johnny Podres is coming out of back-to-back races at Del Mar where turf sprints are run at five furlongs. His prior three races all came down the hill at Santa Anita and at six and a half furlongs, today’s distance. He wants to come from off the pace, and the added distance is key for this sprinter who has found new form at the age of 7.
Let’s sprinkle in a long shot with the #5 King of Gosford, who will return to sprinting after back-to-back two-turn races. Sprinting was his game before the layoff, and he has every right to improve on past numbers, cutting back in distance here. Top Cali turf train D’Amato turns to Fresu to ride who piloted him home in two races down the Santa Anita hill.
#11 Big Invasion ships in from New York after returning to form last time out. He’s never run down the Santa Anita hill, and the distance is longer than he wants to run, but the talent is there. I still cannot swallow too short of a price here, as he projects to be the favorite.
Santa Anita Picks: 2-1-5-11
Bets: $50 Win #2
Spot Plays:
Santa Anita Race #5 – $50 Win #1
Santa Anita Race #10 – $50 Exacta 3-1
