Saratoga and Del Mar Picks:
As we head toward the Whitney card on Saturday, we’ve got some fun racing to jump into! Let’s look at today’s Saratoga and Del Mar picks.
National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame, Saratoga, Race #9
Friday’s Saratoga feature is a nice $500,000 turf race honoring the Hall of Fame class that will be inducted over the weekend. It’s a highly competitive race, with the #4 Neat most likely breaking as the favorite. He’s been solid this year running and winning two grade threes, but his numbers don’t stand out against the field. He will likely have to run his best career race to win and that’s not a horse I am looking to back as a favorite.
To his inside, #3 Zverev has shown versatility in his last two starts. The race two back is better than it looks on paper, he was completely cut off in the stretch while closing, and he won last time out sitting close to the pace. He is stepping up in class, but his numbers are better than most and he’s a much better horse at three than he was at two.
#2 Buttercream Babe sports a win over the track and attracts top jock Irad Ortiz Jr to ride. Like Zverev, he’s shown that he can be forwardly placed or close from the back. He will most likely try to save ground into the first turn and burst home from there. If he gets the trip, he’s dangerous.
#5 Lagynos has been knocking on the door since turning to the turf, but just cannot seem to break through. While he fits from a number perspective, I was much more interested in him when he was 35-1 than I am today at the 9/2 price, but if you are playing trifectas, he is a logically underneath horse.
#7 Barksdale is the wild card of the field. He has never raced on the turf, but he does possess one thing no one less in the field has: early speed. He will try to take this field as long as he can on the front end and he has the breeding to be able to pull it off. I’m not going to put a win ticket in on him at 15-1, but I will be using him in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 since he has a chance to blow up the tote board.
Saratoga Picks: 3-2-4-5
Bets: $50 Win #3
Real Good Deal Stakes, Del Mar, Race #6
This race boils down to your opinion on the #13 Shady Tiger, the convincing favorite in a large field. He was great on both Turf and Dirt earlier in the season in these state-bred stakes races, but with the price and the post, I have to look elsewhere since he’s not a statistical standout.
#1 Pure Madness is the new shooter at this level with just one race, a maiden win on the turf, under his belt. While the breeding does not jump off the page, all of his siblings have won, and one of them includes Tom’s Regret, a multiple stakes winner on the dirt. On top of that, he’s got the works on the dirt that suggest the surface switch will not be an issue. Pure Madness is also owned by the trainer which makes it less likely he is simply taking a shot here when there are other, easier spots to run in.
#3 Stay On the Fence has lost to Shady Tiger three times, which is not great, but he’s 20-1. That is great for a horse with upside. He has won over this track, and this is his game. He’s got tactical speed, which is always important in these larger fields at Del Mar. While I will not have him on top, I may bet him to win if that price floats up.
#6 Curlin’s Kaos returns to sprinting after having higher aspirations early in the year, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He is bred to love this seven-furlong set-up today and showed enough early pop out of the gate to stay close here. He is live if he does not find himself too far back.
Del Mar Picks: 1-13-3-6
Bets: $50 Win #1
Spot Plays:
Saratoga, Race #8, $50 Exacta 1-4
Del Mar, Race #4. $50 Win #2
