Welcome to our regularly scheduled “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” Saturday column, though it’s extra-special this week as our crew is looking at the 9 Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland.
“Future Stars Friday” didn’t go too well for our crew overall, though I did have #4 Forte as my top pick in the BC Juvenile, paying $12.04 to Win as he upset favored #3 Cave Rock. With my 1-2-3-Longshot picks (I also listed third-place finisher National Treasure and fourth-place Blazing Sevens), my four colts also cashed the $27.30 Exacta, $45.14 Trifecta and $134.50 Superfecta.
But those relatively low payoffs (at least as far as the way I usually play these races) just had us making a small profit on the day.
So, let’s turn to Saturday as I’m joined again by DraftKings’ head oddsmaker John Avello Rampart’s Duane Colucci and my longtime handicapping friend John Lauro. Conspicuous by his absence in this column is Ed Sehon, but he’s on assignment in person at the Breeders’ Cup and he has his own “Mr. Ed” column this weekend at VSiN.com/horses.
Without further ado, here are my team’s top plays for the 9 BC championship races on Saturday.
Keeneland Race 3 — Breeders’ Cup Turf Filly and Mare Sprint (11:50 a.m. ET)
Dave Tuley likes #3 Chi Town Lady (20-1 morning line). “In a sprint, most people look for speed horses, but closers win these races all the time. That being said, #13 Echo Zulu is probably the most likely winner here if she gets the lead as we think she’s only 6-1 because of the outside post. But when looking for real value on the betting board, the play is Chi Town Lady at 20-1. She closed at 7 furlongs in the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga for the win at 17-1 and this sets up the same way. 1. #3 Chi Town Lady (20-1), #13 Echo Zulu (6-1), 3. #4 Ce Ce (4-1), Longshot #7 Obligatory (8-1).”
Keeneland Race 4 — Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (12:29 p.m. ET)
John Avello likes, in no particular order: “#3 Emaraaty Ana (20-1). Euro-invader offers great value. Gelding is fresh, sitting on a big race. #4 Campanelle (8-1). From Ireland, filly is familiar with the track. Won here in April. Another value play. #11 Casa Creed (6-1). Pitch last when hung out. If closer to pace today, he’ll be tough down the lane.”
Duane Colucci likes #4 Campanelle (8-1 morning line). “The so-called ‘other Ward trainee’ gets the services of Frankie Dettori. This filly was impressive at Kentucky Downs after a solid run at Ascot. Has a victory over the course at the same distance and nice workouts. Can pick up the pieces if Golden Pal gives it up late. Bet 4 to Win and key 4 over 1,6,8,12 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”
Dave Tuley likes #14 Artemus Citylimits (30-1 morning line). “This turf sprint has some speed horses, but I think this longshot has a great chance to get to the lead and steal it even with an outside post as there’s plenty of run until the turn. Trainer Michael Maker is the turfmaster and I don’t think he would be putting Artemus Citylimits in this ambitious spot if he didn’t think he could handle it. Catch me if you can. 1. #14 Artemus Citylimits (30-1), 2. #11 Casa Creed (6-1), 3. #8 Golden Pal (2-1), Longshot #4 Campanelle (8-1).”
Keeneland Race 5 — Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1:10 p.m. ET)
Duane Colucci likes #5 Gunite (7-2 morning line). “Rousing winner of the Perryville here on Oct. 22 wheels right back. This colt has won 4-of-5, including the Grade 2 Amsterdam. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione and trainer Steve Asmussen are hitting at 35% and have a $4.53 ROI at Keeneland. Bet 5 to Win and key 5 over 6,7,9 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”
John Avello likes these three: “#5 Gunite (7-2). Very fast, has win over track, always gives his best. #9 Cyberknife (9-2). Distance fits, will be there in stretch. #3 Pipeline (8-1). Rider Prat a plus. Not to be confused with Flightline – who is one of a kind and my pick to win the Classic – but very consistent colt.”
John Lauro likes #7 Cody’s Wish (5-2 morning line). “Cody’s Wish had an incredible performance in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga, almost setting track record.”
Dave Tuley likes #2 Simplification (15-1 morning line). “Please allow me to digress a little bit here. In my 40 years following the races, I’ve always hated when I hear handicappers (usually on TV) say things like ‘I need to see a race’ when a horse is coming off a layoff or trying something different like a new track, new surface, new distance, etc. My belief is you miss longshots that way, plus once a horse wins at something new, everyone sees it and you’ll never get good odds again. So, I’ve often been too early on horses – though I still prefer that to being too late. So, Simplification was one of my Kentucky Derby future bets earlier this year. He obviously didn’t win that (though finishing a respectable 4th) and hasn’t lived up to his potential, but Saturday could be the day in the Dirt Mile. He won at this distance in a minor stakes race back in January and has been going longer since. This just might be his distance and should be sitting just off the pace and hopefully right there in the stretch. 1. #2 Simplification (15-1), 2. #7 Cody’s Wish (5-2), 3. #5 Gunite (7-2), Longshot #10 Senor Buscador (12-1).”
Keeneland Race 6 — Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (1:50 p.m. ET)
Dave Tuley likes #12 Moira (10-1 morning line). “Like most BC turf races, this is full of foreign invaders. Moira isn’t from overseas but is an invader nonetheless from over the border at Woodbine in Canada. And she picks up my favorite international jockey in Frankie Dettori. Moira knows how to find the winner’s circle (4-for-6 lifetime) and is an ultra-consistent closer who should be running fastest of all down the stretch at a fair price. 1. #12 Moira (10-1), 2. #11 In Italian (7-2), 3. #3 Nashwa (5-2), Longshot #9 Rougir (12-1).”
Keeneland Race 7 — Breeders’ Cup Sprint (2:30 p.m. ET)
Dave Tuley likes #11 Flash of Mischief (30-1 morning line). “I don’t always like to mention the favorites we’re trying to beat, but I will say that this is #9 Jackie’s Warrior’s race to lose. She is the most likely winner and should be the speed of the speed and 6 furlongs isn’t long enough for her to fade like we usually hope chalky faves do. But sometimes you bet a race in hopes that the standout isn’t on their game, so we’re looking for a price to come off the pace and we believe Flash of Mischief has as good a chance as any to pull the upset, and at much better odds than the other contenders, Even though running at Remington Park, this former router’s minor stakes win in September is the highest speed rating of any runner’s last race. 1. #11 Flash of Mischief (30-1), 2. #9 Jackie’s Warrior (4-5), 3. #2 Kimari (4-1), Longshot #5 Aloha West (12-1).”
Keeneland Races 7-11 – Late all-BC Pick 5 (2:30 p.m. ET)
Duane Colucci likes this Pick 5 (cost $90)
Race 7: 6,9
Race 8: 4,8,11,13,14
Race 9: 1,2,6
Race 10: 2,5,7
Race 11: 1,4
Keeneland Race 8 — Breeders’ Cup Mile (3:10 p.m. ET)
John Avello likes #6 Ivar (15-1 morning line) in the Mile. “Ivar is value play for in-the-money finish. He needs to be up close early. #8 Regal Glory (6-1) likes to win. Experience over track is a big plus. Brown-Jose Ortiz tough combo. British invader #14 Domestic Spending (8-1). He could take it all from outermost post for Brown and Prat.”
Dave Tuley likes #11 Annapolis (10-1 morning line). “I usually handicap the horses without even looking at the jockeys (since I’ve long gone with the belief that the jockey doesn’t carry the horse across the finish line), but when I landed on Annapolis with his stalking style fitting this race to a T, I was encouraged to see Irad Ortiz Jr. is his regular jockey and is hitting 32% on Todd Pletcher horses the past two months, though usually at shorter prices. Even so, Annapolis doesn’t need the lead and has as good of a chance here as anyone. I also want to mention not to overlook also-eligible #16 Gear Jockey (30-1) if he draws into the race. 1. #11 Annapolis (10-1), 2. #4 Modern Games (7-2), 3. #14 Domestic Spending (8-1), Longshot #12 King Cause (30-1).”
Keeneland Race 9 — Breeders’ Cup Distaff (3:55 p.m. ET)
Duane Colucci likes #2 Blue Stripe (20-1 morning line). “Going for a price here as trainer Marcelo Polanco has this 5-year-old mare in super shape. She has been dominating in SoCal, but this is a huge step up. The works are solid and Hector Berrios is very capable in the saddle. He and Polanco have a $9.70 ROI this year. Bet 2 to Win and Place, plus key 2 over 1,6,7 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”
Dave Tuley likes #8 Society (6-1 morning line). “This is a relatively short 7-horse field for a BC race, but I still don’t think Nest should be a favorite as low as 9-5. This is much more wide-open than that and I give my nod to Society with a great chance to steal this on the front end off of her two straight wire-to-wire victories. She broke her maiden at Keeneland a year ago, so we assume she likes the track. Nest will be among those trying to catch her, but we think she can go the distance just like she has in 4-of-6 career races. 1. #8 Society (6-1), 2. #1 Malathaat (3-1), 3. #6 Nest (9-5), Longshot #5 Awake at Midnight (30-1).”
Keeneland Race 10 — Breeders’ Cup Turf (4:40 p.m. ET)
Dave Tuley likes #10 Red Knight (20-1 morning line). “We know we’re trying to beat the foreign horses in the Turf, but that’s how we roll. Throw out Red Knight’s 8th-place finish in his last race and he fits here – actually, don’t dismiss it as he actually only lost by 1 1/2 lengths, which I consider a “winning effort.” I also had him at 12-1 at Kentucky Down in September and I’m guessing we’re only getting such a fair price here because of the misleading result last time out. The same goes for my longshot pick, #9 Gold Phoenix, who lost as a 6-5 favorite in his last race at Santa Anita but should also be a contender in the stretch at higher than his true odds. 1. #10 Red Knight (20-1), 2. #7 Nations Pride (7-2), 3. #5 Rebel’s Romance (3-1), Longshot #9 Gold Phoenix (20-1).”
Keeneland Race 11 — Breeders’ Cup Classic (5:40 p.m. ET)
John Avello and John Lauro both like #4 Flightline (3-5 morning line favorite). Avello calls him “one of a kind” and Lauro says “If they let Flightline run full throttle, he will crush them and set track record.”
Duane Colucci likes #1 Taiba (8-1). “Bob Baffert 3-year-old has improved each start this year and is working lights out. Draws the rail and has to climb the mountain to beat Flightline, but if anyone can do it, it’s Mister Baffert! Bet 1 to Win and key 1 over 2,4,6 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”
Dave Tuley likes #5 Hot Rod Charlie (15-1 morning line). “Man, oh, man I really want to put Rich Strike on top at 20-1. I love when we’re getting a great price on a horse that has already shown he can beat his main competition like he did with his 80-1 upset in the Derby (though he’s obviously also taking on top older horses here like Flightline). Rich Strike has also been inconsistent, so I’ve landed on Hot Rod Charlie as it looks like he can be the controlling speed here with all the top contenders looking to come off the pace. Horses like this on the lead are dangerous. We also like that jockey Tyler Gaffalione got off the schneid with his first BC win on Friday. 1. #5 Hot Rod Charlie (15-1), 2. #4 Flightline (3-5), 3. #1 Taiba (8-1), Longshot #8 Rich Strike (20-1).”
