Tuley’s Takes: Day 1 Breeders’ Cup Picks:
Welcome to the Tuley’s Takes home office for Day 1 of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup.
We’ve enjoyed a lot of success in this event over the years and truly believe that’s because it’s ripe for our long-shot approach (similar to our “dog or pass philosophy in other sports), as there’s always world-class-quality horses that get overlooked on the odds board and our job is to find those live long shots, whether it be in the pages of Daily Racing Form, Bodog/Bovada website, ESPN.com and now VSiN.com since 2017.
For the uninitiated to my Breeders’ Cup columns over the years, I’ll list my 1-2-3-Longshot selections on each race, starting with the five Juvenile races on Friday (and we’ll be back tomorrow with our “takes” on the nine Saturday races).
My top choice is what I consider my “value pick,” as the horse with the best chance to outperform its odds, and thus, the biggest chance to profit in the long run (though it only really matters how they run today, right? LMAO). When I talk about my winning Breeders’ Cup selections over the years, I’m mostly talking about those top plays and don’t even include all the other overlays that have hit in our 2-3 and especially “Longshot” picks or the countless exactas and trifectas from boxing our plays. Those really come down to how you choose to play the horses I’ve pointed out.
Personally, I bet the most (Win and Place) on my top choice, which is almost always a longshot, but will also usually bet my “Longshot” play as sometimes I guess wrong in which is the right price play. I also start by boxing my four selections in Exactas and Trifectas in case we catch the right combos to hit the board.
And away we go …
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Del Mar Race No. 6, 5:45 p.m. ET/2:45 p.m. PT)
1-#10 Governor Sam (12-1)
2-#7 Whistlejacket (5-1)
3-#12 Ides of March (8-1)
Longshot-#11 Gate to Wire (30-1)
We start with the 2-year-old turf sprinters going five furlongs, so this is a true sprint. #10 Governor Sam has raced at five different tracks and always brings the early speed and could win the race to the first call and hopefully go all the way like his last two wins in ungraded stakes. We can’t ignore the foreign invaders in these BC turf events, so we have to include #7 Whistlejacket (three wins and three seconds in seven career starts in Ireland, England and France) and #12 Ides of March (two straight stakes wins in Ireland and ridden by the great Frankie Dettori for trainer Aidan O’Brien). Our longshot is #11 Gate to Wire, though he hasn’t gone gate-to-wire yet in two career start, but the equally great Irad Ortiz Jr. should have him just off the pace with a shot to pull the big upset if my top choice doesn’t hold on, so that would be the desired 10-11 Exacta box we’d love either way.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Del Mar Race No. 7, 6:25 p.m. ET/3:25 p.m. PT)
1-#1 Vodka With a Twist (20-1)
2-#10 Scottish Lassie (5-2)
3-#4 La Cara (12-1)
Longshot-#8 Nooni (15-1)
This looks like a very wide-open Juvenile Fillies. We’re going with #1 Vodka With a Twist as our top value play as she should be sitting just off the pace and get a ground-saving trip from the rail with a great chance turning for home under Irad Ortiz Jr. She was leading the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante over this track on Sept. 7 before losing by a nose, but that could be a good thing as it should protect our price with other bettors discarding her chances. #10 Scottish Lassie is a deserving morning-line favorite off her nine-length romp in the Grade 1 Frizette at the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet and #4 La Cara took four races to break her maiden but now has figured out this racing game with two straight wins, including the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. Our longshot is #8 Nooni, as you can’t ignore trainer Bob Baffert with these 2-year-olds and could steal this on the front end (or set it up for our stalkers).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Del Mar Race No. 8, 7:05 p.m. ET/4:05 p.m. PT)
1-#8 Heavens Gate (12-1)
2-#1 Lake Victoria (8-5)
3-#12 May Day Ready (20-1)
Longshot-#10 Abientot (30-1)
We have one of my favorite horse racing handicapping angles here with #8 Heavens Gate as a “hidden entry.” Old-timers will remember back when horses with the same trainer would be coupled in the wagering (and be entered as 1 and 1A), but both Heavens Gate and 8-5 morning-line favorite #1 Lake Victoria are trained by Aidan O’Brien, so the play is to take the “hidden entry” longshot. I don’t have enough space to recount how many times I’ve cashed tickets on this, but the first one that comes to mind is D. Wayne Lukas winning the 1995 Preakness with Thunder Country over his stablemate, Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. I’m also using Lake Victoria in my exotics in case O’Brien dominates this race. #12 May Day Ready (3-for-3 lifetime and winner of the Grade 2 Jessamine last out) and longshot #10 Abietot (deep-closing winner of the Grade 3 Matron at the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet) round out our foursome to try to blow up the tote board.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Del Mar Race No. 9, 7:45 p.m. ET/4:45 p.m. PT)
1-#7 Gaming (8-1)
2-#5 Jonathan’s Way (9-2)
3-#10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1)
Longshot-#2 Getaway Car (20-1)
Speaking of hidden entries, trainer Bob Baffert has three colts in the Juvenile, but none are among the top four choices on the morning line. #7 Gaming is also a horse for the course as he’s 2-for-2 at Del Mar, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 8 to prep for this race. That was at seven furlongs, but I don’t think Baffert will have any problem getting him to stretch out to the mile and a sixteenth distance here. Among the top contenders, I’m using #5 Jonathan’s Way (wire-to-wire winner of the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill and #10 Chancer McPatrick (had closed to win all three lifetime races, including the Grade 1 Champagne, in case the front-runners burn each other out). If you’re looking at the “hidden entry” angle, you have to take a peak at #2 Getaway Car, the highest price of the Baffert trio, who very well could be the speed of the speed and set the pace here. He didn’t get to the front last time out in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and ran second the whole way around the Santa Anita track, but look out if he gets the lead here (if you can’t tell, I almost made Getaway Car my top pick).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Del Mar Race No. 10, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT)
1-#12 Aomori City (10-1)
2-#4 Al Qudra (4-1)
3-#13 Henri Matisse (6-1)
Longshot-#14 Tenacious Leader (15-1)
#12 Aomori City came up empty in his last Group 1 race in Ireland, but three-time Juvenile Turf-winning trainer Charles Appleby wouldn’t be shipping him if he didn’t think he could bounce back in this spot. As stated above, that losing effort is what’s giving us betting value here. If you like the 5-2 morning-line favorite #11 New Country, I think you have to include #4 Al Qudra, who was the chalk in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine that was won by New Country to earn favoritism here. As also stated above, you have to take a close look at foreign horses (not just Canada LOL), so we’re #13 Henri Matisse (another invader from Aidan O’Brien). Our longshot is #14 Tenacious Leader, my top choice from the good ole U.S. of A, who also had a clunker in his last race, the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, but fits here at a price for the Repole Stable-Todd Pletcher team.
