Tuley’s Takes: Day 2 Breeders’ Cup Picks:
Welcome to the Tuley’s Takes home office for Day 2 of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup.
You’re probably reading this after Friday’s Day 1 is complete with the five “Juvenile” races for 2-year-olds, and now we have nine BC championship races to tackle on Saturday.
As I wrote Friday, we’ve enjoyed a lot of success in this event over the years and truly believe that’s because it’s ripe for our long-shot approach (similar to our “dog or pass philosophy” in other sports) as there’s always world-class-quality horses that get overlooked on the odds board and our job is to find those live long shots, whether it be in the pages of Daily Racing Form, Bodog/Bovada website, ESPN.com and now VSiN.com since 2017.
For the uninitiated to my BC columns over the years, I’ll list my 1-2-3-Longshot selections on each BC race. My top choice is what I consider my “value pick” as the horse with the best chance to outperform its odds and, thus, the biggest chance to profit in the long run (though it only really matters how they run today, right?). When I talk about my winning BC selections over the years, I’m mostly talking about those top plays and don’t even include all the other overlays that have hit in our 2-3 and especially “Longshot” picks or the countless Exactas and Trifectas from boxing our plays. Those really come down to how you choose to play the horses I’ve pointed out, and hopefully, we meet at the window to cash.
Personally, I bet the most (Win and Place) on my top choice, which is almost always a longshot, but I will also usually bet my “Longshot” play as sometimes I guess wrong in which is the right price play. I also start by boxing my four selections in Exactas and Trifectas so we can catch the right combos if they hit the board.
And away we go …
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Del Mar Race No. 4, 3 p.m. ET/noon PT)
1-#10 Scylla (10-1)
2-#6 Society (3-1)
3-#4 Vahva (4-1)
Longshot-#3 Pleasant (12-1)
I will often say that a Breeders’ Cup is wide open, mainly because of what I wrote above that these fields are usually very deep with very talented horses, and some of the longshots really have just as much of a chance as the top contenders (despite what the morning line maker says). But after going through the whole field in Saturday’s BC opener, I’ve landed on three horses from the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga on Aug. 24. And it’s the 1-2-3 betting choices from that race that ran 3-2-1. The Ballerina winner, #6 Society, was the third choice that day and is the 3-1 favorite here, but I like #10 Scylla, who was the second choice and ran second, as my value play to turn tables here as she’s surprisingly high at an overlay price of 10-1. The William Mott trainee should be sitting off the pace and hopefully fire this time. I have #6 Society in the second spot and #4 Valha, the Ballerina chalk who ran third, in the third spot again here. My longshot is #3 Pleasant, who is making her stakes debut for Bob Baffert but should be in the second tier of fillies and mares, too.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Del Mar Race No. 5, 3:41 p.m. ET/12:41 p.m. PT)
1-#11 Big Evs (12-1)
2-#9 Cogburn (7-5)
3-#2 Motorious (8-1)
Longshot-#6 Star of Mystery (10-1)
Turf sprint races are always an interesting puzzle as you have to decide if the front-running sprinters can wire the field or if it’ll set up for a closer (because closers win plenty of sprints, too). Our top value play, #11 Big Evs, and morning-line favorite, #9 Cogburn, should both be gunning for the lead from the outside and I believe they’ll get there. At 12-1, I give Big Evs a bigger chance to outrun his odds and potentially pull the upset, though Cogburn is certainly good enough to hang around in the money. However, in my exotic wagers, I definitely have to find some closers and so I have #2 Motorious (deep-closing winner of the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap over this Del Mar turf course) with my longshot being #6 Star of Mystery (who has a first, second and a third in three graded stakes races since invading the states from England via Dubai).
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Del Mar Race No. 6, 4:21 p.m. ET/1:21 p.m. PT)
1-#1 Candied (15-1)
2-#2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5)
3-#9 Awesome Result (4-1)
Longshot-#5 Sugar Fish (20-1)
The Distaff already had one of the shortest BC fields with just 10 entries and is now down to eight with two scratches. That makes it harder to find a live longshot, but I have one in #1 Candied, who should be able to stalk the pace under stud jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. I’m not counting on getting the full 15-1 from the morning line with the scratches, plus Ortiz riding for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. Odds-on favorite #2 Thorpedo Anna will probably inherit the lead, but I feel that could compromise her chances despite winning five of six races (all graded stakes) this year. Another dangerous short price is #9 Awesome Result, who is undefeated in seven career races in Japan. My longshot is #5 Sugar Fish, who could be closing from the clouds if the race falls apart from a fast pace.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (Del Mar Race No. 7, 5:01 p.m. ET/2:01 p.m. PT)
1-#8 Cabo Spirit (30-1)
2-#11 Rebel’s Romance (5-2)
3-#6 Far Bridge (6-1)
Longshot-#3 Shahryar (10-1)
The $5 million Turf used to be the penultimate race on the big Saturday BC card, but now with the rescheduling it lands in the middle of the Del Mar schedule. But we’re still looking for a bomb to upset the foreign invaders, and I’m going with #8 Cabo Spirit. Do you ever see a horse that you just figure has realized what this racing stuff is all about? I got that feeling watching Cabo Spirit’s wire-to-wire victory at a mile and a quarter in the John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita. You don’t often see that in turf routes, but he was running faster in the final quarter mile than the other calls, so I’m counting on him to get the final two furlongs here. It’s a long shot, but it happens, so I’m taking a flier. I can’t throw out the 5-2 morning-line favorite #11 Rebel’s Romance (4-for-5 this year racing all over the world) and #6 Far Bridge (two straight Grade 1 wins under top jockey Joel Rosario). My longshot (though not as long as my top choice) is #3 Shahryar, who invades from Japan and hasn’t won in 2.5 years but did run second to Rebel’s Romance back in July in Dubai.
Breeders’ Cup Classic (Del Mar Race No. 8, 5:41 p.m. ET/2:41 p.m. PT)
1-#12 Arthur’s Ride (15-1)
2-#9 Fierceness (3-1)
3-#1 Forever Young (6-1)
Longshot-#5 Senor Biuscador (30-1)
As posted in the VSiN Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide: #12 Arthur’s Ride (15-1) could be the speed of the speed and steal this as is not too uncommon in these big races. There are plenty of contenders running capable of going to the lead in this field, but after Arthur’s Ride went wire-to-wire at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter distance back in June, he set the pace in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Whitney and Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup before giving up the lead. Elsewhere in the BC Betting Guide, I previewed the Dirt Mile and that might have been a perfect spot for him, but I’m trusting the fact trainer William Mott puts him here as he must think this 4-year-old son of Tapit has a decent shot at the upset. If Mott had another starter here, the thought would be he was just entering Arthur’s Ride as a “rabbit,” but that’s not the case so “full speed ahead!” I can’t leave out #9 Fierceness (who I prefer over morning-line favorite #3 City of Troy off his Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Grade 1 Travers victories after losing as the Kentucky Derby favorite) and #1 Forever Young (back to the states after returning to Japan following his impressive third-place finish in the Derby). My longshot extraordinaire is #5 Senor Buscador (should be closing like Speedy Gonzalez under Joel Rosario)
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Del Mar Race No. 9, 6:25 p.m. ET/3:25 p.m. PT)
1-#5 Didia (12-1)
2-#3 Cinderella’s Dream (4-1)
3-#10 Moira (8-1)
Longshot-#2 Full Count Felicia (12-1)
I’m usually able to make a distinction between my top value play and my longshot pick, but this was closer to a coin flip with the Ortiz Brothers riding both, so as stated in the intro, I’ll probably have Win money for both. I’m going with #5 Didia with Jose Ortiz as my top value play on the tiebreaker that I think she has a better chance to hold onto her long odds (mainly to losing as the odds-on chalk in her last race here) than #2 Full Count Felicia, who is coming off two straight graded stakes wins in Canada and has the more popular Irad Ortiz Jr. Among the lower-priced contenders, I prefer #3 Cinderella’s Dream (2-for-2 in graded stakes since invading from England) and #10 Moira (second to Full Count Felicia in last race at Woodbine) to close out my exotic wagers.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Del Mar Race No. 10, 7:05 p.m. ET/4:05 p.m. PT)
1-#1 Raging Torrent (10-1)
2-#10 Mullikin (7-2)
3-#3 Federal Judge (3-1)
Longshot-#4 Nakatomi
There’s an old horse racing saying: “The race is not always to the swift, but that’s the way to bet.” I’m using that adage in picking #1 Raging Torrent to steal this race at 10-1. This being the Sprint, there’s plenty of other early speed, but I’ll take Raging Torrent to beat them to the front from the rail and play “catch me if you can.” I’m putting #10 Mullikin in the second spot in case the fast pace sets up a stalker, though we can’t throw out the morning-line favorite #3 Federal Judge (as the gelding is another balls-to-the-wall runner). What if all that speed burns each other out, well then we turn to your longshot play #4 Nakatomi, who at 6-1 isn’t that long of a shot but I like him best among the closers.
Breeders’ Cup Mile (Del Mar Race No. 11, 7:45 p.m. ET/4:45 p.m. PT)
1-#2 Chili Flag (20-1)
2-#12 Carl Spackler (6-1)
3-#6 Notable Speech (7-2)
Longshot-#5 Goliad (20-1)
#2 Chili Flag is our top value play in the Mile, as we’re getting a very generous 20-1 price on this mare taking on the boys. Plus she lost her last two races (but we see it as her returning to form with her runner-up finish in the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland. As long as she doesn’t throw in a clunker like her ninth-place finish in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga in July (only her second race in the past two years where she came up empty), she should be roaring down the stretch with a shot at the upset. #12 Carl Spackler and #6 Notable Speech (the lukewarm 7-2 morning-line favorite in a wide-open race) should be part of the pace scenario and should still be around at the wire. The same goes for my longshot play in #5 Goliad (who could possibly steal this at a price if the other early speed doesn’t fire).
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Del Mar Race No. 12, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT)
1-#12 Mufasa (12-1)
2-#10 Muth (9-2)
3-#9 Domestic Product (7-2)
Longshot-#13 Pipeline (30-1)
#12 Mufasa (12-1) comes in off of two straight wins in an optional claiming race at Colonial Downs on Aug. 12 but then stepped up to win the Grade 3 Vosburgh at the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet on Sept. 28. This 5-year-old has done most of his racing in Chile, but is 10-for-13 lifetime, so he knows how to find the winner’s circle. In fact, he’s my value play in the race as long as he stays in double digits, which should be the case with this wide-open race. #10 Muth and #9 Domestic Product are included as my choices among the low-priced contenders to hit the board. As for my longshot pick, #2 T O Saint Denis and #13 Pipeline should both be part of the early rush to the lead along with #1 Saudi Crown that I’m hoping gives a fast pace for Mufasa to run at, but I give the edge to Pipeline even though his only wins this year haven’t been in stakes races. He fits here and could pull the shocker in the finale.
