Tigers vs. Astros Prediction
The 2024 MLB Playoffs begin with the first pitch of the AL Wild Card series between the Tigers and Astros. The best-of-three series kicks off on Tuesday October 1 at 2:30 p.m. ET with a matchup between presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Astros ace Framber Valdez for the home team.
Detroit’s extremely improbable playoff run has gotten a lot of buzz and a lot of headlines. Per FanGraphs, they had a playoff probability of 0.2% as late as August 11, but went on a 31-13 run over the final 44 games to punch a ticket to the postseason. Even as of September 12, they were just 7.5% to be in this position.
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The Astros were under 50% to make it as of August 5 at 44.5% per FanGraphs, but here they are with their fourth straight AL West title and seventh in the last eight seasons. The only time they didn’t win was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with just 60 games played. This year’s bunch was actually 10 games back on June 18 and started the season 12 games under .500 through June 18, but finished 15 games over and locked up another division crown.
All games will be played at Minute Maid Park in Houston, as they are the lone division winner playing in this round.
Let’s preview this series, the likely pitching matchups, and find some bets.
Tigers vs. Astros AL Wild Card Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday October 1, 2:30 p.m. ET (Skubal vs. Valdez)
Game 2: Wednesday October 2, 2:30 p.m. ET (Olson vs. Kikuchi)
Game 3: Thursday October 3, 2:30 p.m. ET (Opener vs. Brown) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Tigers vs. Astros
All games on ABC at 2:30 p.m. ET
Tigers vs. Astros Series Odds
Detroit Tigers +150 // Houston Astros -175
Over/Under 2.5 Games: -105 // -115
Tigers vs. Astros AL Wild Card Preview
There are two main keys to this series, one for each team. The first is Skubal, who gets the call in Game 1 and is a real weapon for an underdog like Detroit. He pitched to a 2.39 ERA with a 2.70 xERA and a 2.49 FIP over 192 innings in the regular season. It was a big bump from his career high set back in 2021 of 149.1 innings and 111.1 more innings than what he threw last season, but he was just as good, if not better in some respects in the second half. He’s a true ace and a potential difference maker for Detroit in this series.
The other is Yordan Alvarez, who missed the final week of the season with knee pain. He posted a .308/.392/.567 slash line and hit 35 homers while posting a career-best 15% K%. Houston did get Kyle Tucker back for 77 plate appearances late in the season and he slashed .365/.453/.587 with four homers in that span, so his return has been crucial. Alvarez is the big bopper and in the playoff run environment, a player like him becomes even more important because such a large percentage of runs come via the long ball.
If Alvarez is out, or at least severely compromised or limited to pinch-hitting duties, that would certainly help the Tigers. Their bullpen also has the chance to be a game-changer. Detroit finished fifth in bullpen ERA and 11th in bullpen FIP, though they have been third with a 2.40 ERA and seventh with a 3.24 FIP over the last 30 days. Manager A.J. Hinch, who led the Astros to the 2017 World Series and was 481-329 in the regular season and 28-22 in the postseason, will rely heavily on that group.
In fact, we may very well see openers in both Games 2 and 3, if Game 3 is required. Skubal and Jack Flaherty set the standard for the rotation, but Flaherty will be pitching in the NLDS for the Dodgers. Reese Olson recently returned and he posted a 3.53 ERA with a 3.51 xERA and a 3.17 FIP, but he only made three starts and didn’t go longer than four innings. I think it’s pretty clear he will be the Game 2 starter or bulk guy. Casey Mize worked solely as a reliever in his last two regular season appearances. Keider Montero had a 4.76 ERA with a 5.15 FIP over 16 starts and three relief efforts. So, the Tigers are going to try to leverage the pen and limit everybody’s exposure.
It will be a more traditional setup for the Astros with Valdez in Game 1. One of Yusei Kikuchi or Hunter Brown will pitch Game 2 and the one who doesn’t would be in line for Game 3. Given that the Tigers were 26th in wOBA at .280 and posted an 82 wRC+, I would guess Kikuchi gets the call. He had a 2.70 ERA and a 3.07 FIP in 10 starts after the All-Star Break. Brown made 30 starts with a 3.49 ERA, 3.27 xERA, and a 3.58 FIP.
The Astros posted a .261/.322/.419 slash with a .321 wOBA and a 111 wRC+ in the second half, meaning they were 11% above league average. The Tigers only posted a .234/.300/.382 slash with a .298 wOBA and a 95 wRC+, meaning they were 5% below league average. Even if we look at the last 30 days, when the Tigers were making their huge push, they were a below average offense with a 94 wRC+ and also struck out nearly 27% of the time.
Valdez, Kikuchi, and Brown all have major strikeout upside and nearly every reliever does nowadays, so the question will center around how many balls in play the Tigers can actually generate. Furthermore, they only hit 21 homers over the last 30 days of the regular season, which ranked tied for 26th. The home run is the great equalizer in the postseason and Detroit’s limited power production could be a major hindrance.
The toughest part of this handicap is Skubal because he can be very dominant and put the Tigers in a position where they only need to win one additional game to advance. However, as great as Skubal is, the Astros are in the -130s for Game 1 and would be a sizable dog in Game 2 and Game 3. As great as Skubal is, the Astros were a top-five offense against lefties most of the season and were in the second half with a .338 wOBA and a 123 wRC+.
Houston to win in two games is +190 (“Series Outcome” at DraftKings under Wild Card Props; or “Series Handicap” Astros -1.5 Games). I think that’s the way to look here. The Tigers are a great story and perhaps they keep writing pages and adding chapters, but the Astros are just too strong for them and Detroit’s main weakness (making contact) is exposed badly here.
Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 Games (+190)
