Royals vs. Orioles Prediction
The Royals are in the MLB playoffs for the third time since 1985. The other two times, they lost in the World Series and then won the World Series the following year. They have a long way to go if they want to do that this season, beginning with the best-of-three Wild Card series against the Orioles.
Baltimore won five more games during the regular season and did not have the luxury of playing the White Sox 13 times. You can only play the teams on the schedule and the Royals did what they needed to do against the historically bad White Sox by going 12-1. Much has been made of the spoils of playing the Pale Hose and it is undoubtedly a big reason why both the Royals and Tigers made the playoffs.
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The Royals were 74-75 against everybody else, but this is a team that still had a +48 run differential in those other 149 games and has one of the deepest top threes in the rotation among AL playoff hopefuls. Alas, people are punishing the Royals and the Orioles are a big favorite, even though they’ve been a 34-38 team over the last 72 games since tying a high-water mark at 24 games over .500 on July 7.
All games will be played in Baltimore at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, as they had the better record.
Let’s preview this series, the likely pitching matchups, and find some bets.
Royals vs. Orioles AL Wild Card Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday October 1, 4 p.m. ET (Ragans vs. Burnes)
Game 2: Wednesday October 2, 4 p.m. ET (Lugo vs. Eflin)
Game 3: Thursday October 3, 4 p.m. ET (Wacha vs. Suarez) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Royals vs. Orioles
Game 1 on ESPN2, Games 2 and 3 on ESPN
Royals vs. Orioles Series Odds
Kansas City Royals +145 // Baltimore Orioles -170
Over/Under 2.5 Games: -105 // -115
Royals vs. Orioles AL Wild Card Preview
Admittedly, I expected the Royals to drop off at multiple junctures throughout the season. They are carried on offense by Bobby Witt Jr. and there are some home/road splits I will discuss shortly. Nine players for the Royals had at least 300 plate appearances. Four of them had a wRC+ over 100, meaning four of them were above average hitters. Michael Massey finished with a 102. Vinnie Pasquantino, who hasn’t played since August 29 when he injured his thumb, had a 108. Salvador Perez had a 115. And Bobby Witt Jr. had a 168.
Witt was 68% better than league average and no other regular contributor was over 15% better. The Royals ranked 28th in BB%, so their offense is dependent on batted ball luck. But, they do put a lot of balls in play as well, as they had the third-lowest K% at 19.4% and were one of three teams under 20%. All three of them (Padres, Astros) are in the playoffs. So, the Royals will put a lot of balls in play and they are the poster child for playing into the playoff variance that MLB brings.
The other thing is that the Royals stole 134 bases. Only the Guardians, Phillies, and Dodgers stole more among playoff teams. The Orioles only stole 98, so the running game could be an important factor in this series.
Unfortunately for KC, power is a major factor in almost every playoff series and the Orioles hit 235 homers. Only the Yankees hit more. Baltimore’s offense is stacked. They, too, had nine players with at least 300 plate appearances. Every single one of them graded above average, ranging from Adley Rutschman at 104 to Gunnar Henderson at 155. Henderson and Witt are stars, but the supporting cast is way stronger for the O’s.
But the Royals may very well have the pitching edge. Ragans, the Game 1 starter, hung a 3.14 ERA with a 3.27 xERA and a 2.99 FIP in his 186.1 innings of work. Lugo, the wily vet and Game 2 starter, had a 3.00 ERA with a 3.72 xERA and a 3.25 FIP. And Wacha, who would be called upon in Game 3 if necessary, had a 3.35 ERA with a 4.05 xERA and a 3.65 FIP in his 166.2 innings.
On some level, I would argue that the Royals are built way better for the grind of 162 than the rush of 3, 5, or 7 games. Lugo and Wacha are great innings eaters and have vastly exceeded expectations with their numbers. But, I wouldn’t really look at them as traditional playoff starters, as they’re both pitch-to-contact types of guys. However, the Royals are also the best defensive team in the league per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric and also led the league in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing Def metric for defensive value.
The Orioles finished 21st in OAA and 19th in Def. In the playoffs, where games are typically tighter and the run environment can be lowered, perhaps the defensive strength of KC provides the underdog a big lift. Ragans, Lugo, and Wacha combined to allow just 48 home runs out of 2,283 batters faced.
Burnes, the Game 1 starter for the O’s, had a 2.92 ERA with a 3.27 xERA and a 3.55 FIP. Unfortunately, Grayson Rodriguez is done for the year, so the O’s would go with Trade Deadline acquisition Zach Eflin in Game 2 in all likelihood, as he had a 2.60 ERA with a 3.94 FIP in nine starts after the trade with the Rays. I would guess Albert Suarez gets the Game 3 call after he had a 3.70 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 4.24 FIP. The depth advantage in the SP department very much falls with the Royals.
The wild card in the Wild Card series is the bullpen. I would not call either bullpen good, but the Royals did seem to figure it out to a higher degree as the season went along. Over the last 30 days, the KC pen had a 2.68 ERA with a 2.72 FIP in 94 innings. Meanwhile, the Orioles pen was 29th with a 5.34 ERA, though they did have a 3.67 FIP, so there was a lot of bad luck in the mix.
All in all, of the two AL Wild Card series, this one has higher upset potential in my mind. That being said, the Royals were the worst offense in baseball by a huge margin in the month of September. They posted a .203/.275/.302 slash with a .257 wOBA and a 61 wRC+. Maybe they can flip the switch. Maybe they can’t.
I do think we get a winner-take-all Game 3 here and like Over 2.5 Games as my favorite bet. The underdog price on the Royals is fairly attractive, but not enough for me to fire away.
Pick: Royals/Orioles Over 2.5 Games (-105)
