Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB action…
6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-145, 8.5)
The Astros (12-10) just swept the Braves on the road, winning 5-2 on Sunday as +115 road dogs. Similarly, the Rays (19-3) just swept the White Sox at home, winning 4-1 on Sunday as -185 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Houston hands the ball to righty Jose Urquidy (1-1, 3.66 ERA) and Tampa Bay counters with fellow righty Taj Bradley (2-0, 2.61 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -125 home favorite and the Astros a +105 road dog. Pros have pounced on Tampa Bay at a modest chalk price, steaming the Rays up from -125 to -145. The Rays are receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, signaling a combination of sharp and public support. Non-division favorites off a win are 81-43 (65%) this season. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 60-33 (65%). Monday home favorites off a win are 7-4 this season and 129-78 (62%) since 2020. Tampa Bay has the edge at the plate (hitting .282 vs .255) and on the mound (2.71 ERA vs 3.22 ERA). The Rays are 19-2 as a favorite, 13-2 against righties and and a perfect 13-0 at home.
7:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (-150, 7.5)
The Yankees (13-9) just dropped two of three at home against the Jays, losing 5-1 yesterday as +115 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Twins (12-10) just dropped two of three at home against the Nats but won 3-1 yesterday as -250 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, New York starts righty Jose Brito (2-1, 5.40 ERA) and Minnesota sends out fellow righty Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.82 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -130 home favorite and the Yankees a +110 road dog, Sharps have laid the juice with the Twins at home, steaming Minnesota up from -130 to -150. This line movement is especially notable because 60% of bets are taking the Yankees, yet the line moved toward Minnesota, further evidence of smart money fading the trendy dog and instead backing the contrarian favorite. Favorites who missed the postseason the previous year are 84-45 (65%) this season. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 60-33 (65%). Minnesota also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Twins are 10-4 as a favorite. The Yankees are 0-2 as a dog.
