Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB slate…
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-130, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals
The Tigers (41-51) just took two of three at the Mariners but dropped Sunday’s series finale 2-0, losing as +145 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Royals (27-67) just lost two of three against the Rays but won yesterday’s series finale 8-4, cashing as +190 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Detroit hands the ball to righty Matt Manning (3-1, 3.72 ERA) and Kansas City counters with Jordan Lyles (1-11, 6.42 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Royals a +110 home dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with Detroit, steaming the Tigers up from -125 to -130. Detroit is receiving 65% of bets but 89% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Sweet Spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 141-77 (65%) this season with a 13% ROI. Both teams are hitting roughly .230. The difference comes on the mound, with Detroit sporting a 4.39 team ERA compared to 5.25 for Kansas City. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 9. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. When two AL Central teams face off, the under is 40-26 (61%) this season with a 15% ROI. Lyles has made 17 starts this season. The Royals are 1-16 in those games.
9:38 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-120, 9)
The Yankees (50-44) just lost two of three at the Rockies, falling 8-7 yesterday as -215 road favorites. Similarly, the Angels (46-48) just lost two of three against the Astros, losing 9-8 yesterday as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, New York goes with righty Luis Severino (1-4, 7.38 ERA) and Los Angeles starts fellow righty Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.62 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as high as a -135 home favorite and the Yankees a +115 road dog. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite these even bet percentages we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -135 to -120. This signals sharp action taking the Yankees as a plus money dog (+115 to +105). New York is receiving 55% of bets but 82% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 120-124 (49%) but have produced a 12% ROI due to the plus money payouts. The Yankees also have value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Angels are in a classic wiseguy "fade" spot having just played on Sunday Night Baseball last night.
