Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-120, 8.5)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Tigers (8-6) took the opener 8-2, cashing as -120 home favorites. Then the Twins (6-7) swept Saturday’s doubleheader, winning the first game 11-5 in extra innings as -120 road favorites and then winning the nightcap 4-1 as +115 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, Minnesota starts righty Bailey Ober (0-1, 12.79 ERA) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Jack Flaherty (0-1, 5.25 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed at -110 odds. Sharps have jumped on Detroit to earn a series split, driving the Tigers up from -110 to -120. Detroit is only receiving 58% of moneyline bets, indicating modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a 10-cent steam move. The Tigers have the better bats (hitting .215 vs .186) and the better pitching staff (ERA 3.15 vs 3.54). The total is 8.5. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left center. The over is receiving 53% of bets but 74% of money, sharp bet discrepancy. Minnesota will be without star shortstop Carlos Correa, who was just placed on the injured list with an oblique strain.
1:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-115, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Rays (8-7) won the opener 2-1 as -110 home favorites. Then the Giants (6-9) came back and crushed the Rays 11-2 yesterday as -105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, San Francisco starts lefty Blake Snell (0-1, 9.00 ERA) and Tampa Bay goes with righty Shawn Armstrong (0-1, 5.68 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -130 road favorite and the Rays a +110 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to back Snell and the Giants off a big win. However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets we’ve seen San Francisco fall from -130 to -115. This signals smart money buying low on the Rays as a plus money dog, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home team (+110 to -105). Wiseguys also seem to be leaning over, as several shops are juicing up the over 8 at -115, signaling a possible rise up to 8.5. The Giants are 9-6 to the over this season. The Rays are 8-7 to the over.
4:07 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics (-135, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Athletics (6-9) won the opener 2-1, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. Then the Nationals (6-8) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday as -125 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Nationals hand the ball to righty Trevor Williams (2-0, 2.61 ERA) and the Athletics counter with lefty Alex Wood (0-1, 8.03 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -120 home favorite and Washington a +110 road dog. The public sees two inferior teams and figures, why not take the plus money with Washington? However, despite 60% of moneyline wagers backing the Nationals we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Oakland (-120 to -135). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Athletics, with pros fading the trendy dog Nats. The Athletics have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Oakland also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game, with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to also come from the better team. The Athletics have the superior pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 3.71 compared to 4.43 for Washington.
