Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games. Be sure to visit the VSiN Betting Splits for the latest odds and percentages for every game. In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s MLB slate…
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1:35 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-170, 8)
The Orioles (13-7) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as -200 home favorites and then winning again on Saturday 5-1 as -180 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers (7-12) hand the ball to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 3.00 ERA) and Baltimore counters with righty Grayson Rodriguez (0-0, 6.91 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as low as a -150 home favorite and the Tigers a +135 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Orioles to complete the sweep, steaming Baltimore up from -150 to -170. The Orioles are receiving roughly 80% of bets and dollars, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support. Favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 80-43 (65%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 77-42 (65%). Baltimore also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Orioles are 8-1 as a favorite, 5-3 against lefties and 6-3 at home. The Tigers are 7-12 as a dog, 5-9 against righties and 3-8 on the road. Baltimore also has the better bats (.246 vs .209) and superior pitching (4.31 ERA vs 5.06 ERA). The Orioles are +17 in run differential. The Tigers are -41.
4:07 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (-200, 9.5)
These teams have split the first two of games of the series, with the Angels (10-11) taking the opener 2-0 as -250 home favorites and then the Royals (5-16) bouncing back with a, 11-8 win yesterday as +150 road dogs. In this late afternoon rubber match, Kansas City taps righty Jordan Lyles (0-3, 3.91 ERA) and Los Angeles rebuttals with lefty Reid Detmers (0-1, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as a -180 home favorite and the Royals a +165 road dog. Sharps have steamed Los Angeles, driving the Angels up from -180 to -200. The Angels are receiving roughly 90% of bets and dollars, signaling an overload of public and sharp support. Non-division favorites -200 or more are 27-11 (71%) this season. Los Angeles has the advantage at the plate (.241 vs .210) and on the mound (3.95 ERA vs 5.54 ERA). The Angels also have the much fresher bullpen, throwing 9.2 innings over the last three games compared to 14 innings for the Royals. Los Angeles is +7 in run differential. Kansas City is -50, second worst in MLB.
