Dodgers vs. Yankees Game 4
It is officially a must-win game for the Yankees on Tuesday night in Game 4 of the World Series. Luis Gil, who was the AL Rookie of the Year favorite for a good portion of the season, gets the call against Johnny Wholestaff for the Dodgers, as they’ll go with a bullpen game by virtue of not really having a fourth starter.
The Yankees are sizable favorites to keep their season afloat, but they’ll need the offense to get going, as they’ve scored a total of seven runs in three games thus far.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees (-148, 8.5)
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where would this series be if Aaron Boone had gone to Tim Hill instead of Nestor Cortes in Game 1? We’ll never know if it would have made a difference or not, but the Freddie Freeman walk-off grand slam set the tone for what has been a surprisingly low-scoring series otherwise. For all of the offensive power and prowess of these two teams, the Dodgers have scored 14 runs – four on that one swing – and the Yankees have scored seven runs. The last two games have easily coasted Under the total and Game 1 was 1-0 through five innings and 2-2 going into the 10th.
To me, that’s the story. Dodgers starters have been outstanding here, even though that looked like the team’s glaring weakness going into the series. Walker Buehler threw five efficient and excellent innings in Game 3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto went 6.1 strong in Game 2. Jack Flaherty was solid in Game 1 over 5.1 innings, with one mistake to Giancarlo Stanton.
LA used six relievers yesterday to preserve the win. Anthony Banda, Alex Vesia, and Michael Kopech have all worked in all three games of the series, though Vesia has thrown five pitches over his last two appearances as one of two lefties in the Dodgers pen. It sure seems like unused Ben Casparius gets the start today and he’ll be backed by Brent Honeywell, who also hasn’t pitched yet.
Landon Knack is available as well, though he’s only pitched three innings in the postseason and allowed five runs on six hits. Casparius has not allowed a run over 4.1 innings and started 14 games in Triple-A, so his arm has a little bit of extra runway to it. Honeywell has allowed four runs on seven hits in 7.2 innings this postseason.
So, I would argue that none of these guys are ideal options in a close-out game, but the Dodgers have given themselves a lot of margin for error. You’d still love to finish it here and not give New York any hope at all. But, I’d also say that with the exception of maybe Kopech, I don’t think anybody is unavailable here otherwise. Ryan Brasier, who has opened games in this postseason, threw 22 pitches yesterday to shake off some rust. He’s definitely an option as well.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will roll with Gil, who was shaky over four innings against the Guardians in the ALCS. He allowed two runs on three hits with three walks and three strikeouts. It is his only start since wrapping up the regular season on September 28. I don’t know how effective he will be, but I can tell you what worries me the most. He had a 12.1% BB% in the regular season. He also had a 26.8% K%, but the Dodgers have only struck out 17 times in the series and have been good at avoiding strikeouts all postseason.
The Dodgers are only batting .213/.296/.457 in this series. But the Yankees are batting .186/.284/.294 and have struck out 31 times in three games. Aaron Judge’s disappearing act has loomed large with an .083/.154/.083 slash in 13 plate appearances. He has six hits in 54 plate appearances this postseason with 20 strikeouts against eight walks.
I don’t have a side play here. It is a big ask to get seven or maybe even eight relievers to all do their jobs. I’m surely not interested in laying the heavy New York price. I guess I lean Dodgers to finish it, but that’s just picking the winner for the sake of the article and nothing more. I wouldn’t bet it.
But, there are a couple things I’ll play.
Luis Gil Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+145): Need to get to 3 here, but that’s why the price is so heavy on the plus-money side. Gil’s Chase% ranked in the 15th percentile and his BB% ranked in the 7th percentile. Now he’s pitching in the game of his life and has made one start in over a month. The Dodgers don’t chase bad pitches and Gil is just a three-pitch pitcher, so a group of smart Dodger hitters will be able to think ahead.
Gavin Lux Over 0.5 Walks (+175): Navigating the Dodgers lineup is exhausting. Lux has drawn two walks in this series in his two starts and had a 9% BB% in the regular season. Out of 286 hitters with at least 300 PA, Lux had the 41st-ranked Out of Zone Swing% per Statcast, so he doesn’t chase a lot. He ranked in the 85th percentile in Chase% and 62nd in BB%.
Guys like Freeman (Over 0.5, +100), Muncy (Over 0.5, -160), Hernandez (Over 0.5, +140), Ohtani (Over 0.5, -150) all have much different vigs. They do bat higher in the order and may get more chances, but this is a good price on Lux in my opinion.
