Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Michael Kopech, Alex Verdugo and Gunnar Henderson on Monday. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 3
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, April 3:
San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox (-135, 8)
In 2021, Michael Kopech only struck out 105 batters in 119.1 innings. However, he whiffed 103 batters in 69.1 innings in 2021, and the 26-year-old projects to be a guy that misses a lot of bats when he one day puts it all together. The righty struggled a bit in Spring Training this year, but he did strike out 14 hitters in 12.2 innings. With that said, it seems like a good idea to back the over on his strikeout total early in the year, as it could end up increasing as the season goes on.
Kopech has filthy stuff and now faces a Giants team that was ninth in MLB in strikeout rate in 2022. The Giants are also up at first in strikeout rate in 2023, as they’re striking out 37.3% of the time to start this season. Considering San Francisco’s struggles to make contact, six strikeouts doesn’t seem out of the question for Kopech.
This also happens to be a home game for the White Sox, and Kopech only had a 3.01 ERA at home in 2022 (compared to a 4.26 ERA on the road). And that’s in line with what we saw from him in 2021. Kopech is comfortable inside Guaranteed Rate Field, and we think he’ll get this season started with a nice performance — at least in the K column.
Bet: Kopech Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox (-142, 9.5)
Alex Verdugo is swinging a hot bat to start the 2023 season, as he’s hitting .357 with a homer and four RBIs through three games. Verdugo is coming off a nice year for the Red Sox, and the lefty has always been a guy that can be relied on to hit right-handed pitching. It just comes natural to him as a lefty hitter, and that is why we’re backing him to go over 1.5 total bases against Johan Oviedo today.
In his career, Verdugo is batting .295 with a .352 on base percentage against righties, which is a bit higher than his .268 average and .316 on base percentage against lefties. Verdugo can win this bet by either getting us an extra base hit or multiple singles. And we just find it to be highly likely he finds a way to get one of those done, as he’ll be batting leadoff in the game with the highest total on the board today. That means he should get a bunch of opportunities to cash this.
Bet: Verdugo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-130, 8)
Gunnar Henderson is 0 for 8 to start 2023, but he should get himself on the board with a hit tonight. You must lay a little juice on the 21-year-old to do so, but it’s worth it in a matchup like this. Jon Gray is a very talented pitcher and had a decent year in his first season with the Rangers in 2022. However, he is at his best pitching against righties, while Henderson is much more comfortable hitting against right-handed pitching.
Last season, Henderson batted .290 and had an on base percentage of .377 against righties, but he was down at a .130 average and .231 on base percentage against southpaws. Meanwhile, lefties hit .248 against Gray in 2022, while righties hit only .201 against the 31-year-old last season.
Henderson also happens to be a part of an Orioles offense that has been rolling to start 2023. If that continues, he’ll see more at-bats and the confidence will rub off on him eventually.
Bet: Henderson Over 0.5 Hits (-155)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +533 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
