Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Nick Maton, Taj Bradley and Tylor Megill on Tuesday, April 18th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 18
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Tuesday, April 18:
Cleveland Guardians (-135, 9) at Detroit Tigers
Nick Maton is only batting .195 for the Tigers this season, but the 26-year-old is the leadoff hitter for this Detroit team. That means he’s likely to get more at-bats than anybody on the Tigers roster, and this is a very winnable matchup for Detroit.
This season, Hunter Gaddis is 0-1 with an 8.53 ERA and there’s just not much to fear when going up against this righty. Gaddis is a massive pitcher at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, but he isn’t as overpowering as you’d expect. And the righty also happens to be fresh off a performance in which he got completely shelled by the New York Yankees.
The reality here is that somebody on the Tigers is bound to get some hits today, and Maton is going to get the most opportunities. The second baseman also happens to be at his best against right-handed pitching, so this just feels like it’s worth a shot. We wanted to back this yesterday, but the weather had other ideas. We’re going back to it today, even at slightly worse odds.
Bet: Maton Over 0.5 Total Bases (-160)
Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 9.5) at Cincinnati Reds
Taj Bradley made his MLB debut against the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, April 12th, when he pitched 5.0 innings of three-run ball. The 22-year-old also racked up eight strikeouts in that game, and he should go out and miss a lot of bats against the Reds in this one.
Bradley has some real power on his pitches, but he also just pounds the strike zone. He really doesn’t walk a lot of batters, but he has some swing-and-miss stuff and gets a great matchup here. This Cincinnati team isn’t nearly as bad as people thought it would be at this point, but the Reds still have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league.
The key here is that the Rays will need to let Bradley throw a decent amount of pitches in order for this to hit. But he threw 78 against the Red Sox in his last start, and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t touch at least 85 in this one. With Jeffrey Springs out for at least two months, the Rays will potentially need Bradley as a regular for the time being.
Bet: Bradley Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8)
Tylor Megill has gotten off to a hot start to the 2023 season, as he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 16.0 innings of work. Megill made some changes to his mechanics that really improved his swing-and-miss stuff heading into last season, but he struggled with injuries and couldn’t quite sustain his impressive start to the year. This season, Megill has had some good starts for New York, but the drop-off is likely coming again.
While Megill’s stats might seem good, his velocity is down quite a bit this season. It’s only a matter of time before that comes back to haunt him, and the same goes for his high barrel percentage and hard hit rates. He has been relatlvely lucky to this point, but that could all go out the window against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles has struggled to start the season, but this matchup could be exactly what the Dodgers need. They had the highest wRC+ in baseball against right-handed pitching last season, and they’re up at sixth in the league in that category this year. And Los Angeles has seen much better righties than Megill. With that in mind, we’re keeping things simple and playing the Dodgers to score three or more runs against the Mets starter.
Bet: Megill Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +638 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
