Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Patrick Corbin, Freddy Peralta and Charlie Morton on Monday, May 15th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 15
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, May 15th:
New York Mets (-155, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
It’s hard to find good things to say about Patrick Corbin, but it should be noted that his 4.87 ERA is much lower than the 6.31 ERA he had in 2022. It’s also better than the 5.82 ERA he had in 2021, so he is trending in the right direction. Corbin’s barrel rate is also way down from each of the last two years, so it’s hard to treat him like the bottom-of-the-barrel pitcher he has been.
With all of that in mind, it’s a little surprising to see that Corbin’s strikeout total is way down at 3.5 for this afternoon. Corbin doesn’t miss bats the way he did when he was in his prime, but he has had at least four strikeouts in three of his last five games. And he had six strikeouts in two of those games, so he is capable of ratcheting things up a notch.
We’re taking Corbin to strike out at least four against the Mets, who don’t hit lefties particularly well.
Bet: Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
Freddy Peralta had just five strikeouts in his most recent outing, but he had a total of 18 strikeouts in his previous two outings. He’s one of the most electric starters in the sport right now when it comes to swing-and-miss stuff, and that’s why we’re playing the over on his strikeout total against the Cardinals.
Peralta struck out seven batters in 6.0 innings when he faced St. Louis on April 9th, and that should be a sign of things to come in this one. Sure, Peralta is a better starter at home than he is on the road, but he’s plenty capable of racking up strikeouts away from home. He’s also facing a Cardinals team that scored nine runs last night, so those bats are due to cool down a bit.
Bet: Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Atlanta Braves (-140, 9) at Texas Rangers
Charlie Morton has had an up-and-down season for the Braves thus far, but his most damaging starts have come on the road. Morton gave up four earned runs on six hits in 5.1 innings of work in a start against the Mets on May 1st, and it wouldn’t be surprising if his road ERA rises the rest of the year. Last season, Morton was 3-5 with a 5.72 ERA in away outings.
This matchup should also present some real challenges for Morton. Texas is tied for third in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year, and this offense can get hot in a hurry. That makes it a little surprising that the over on Morton’s earned runs allowed can be had at plus-money odds. We’re rolling with it and not thinking twice about it.
Bet: Morton Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+115)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +532 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
