MLB Player Props for Friday, March 29th
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Friday, March 29th.
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New York Yankees at Houston Astros – 8:10 pm ET
Last season, Chas McCormick batted .325 with eight doubles, nine homers and 21 RBIs against left-handed pitching. And in 2022, McCormick hit .340 with a triple, six doubles, five homers and 14 RBIs against southpaws. The 28-year-old is just extremely dangerous against lefties, and he now gets a crack at a very hittable one. Last year, Carlos Rodon was just 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA in his first season with the Yankees. Rodon’s velocity is down since arriving in the Bronx, and he was hoping to put it all behind him this season. However, things weren’t much better in Spring Training. Rodon gave up five homers in five appearances and was shelled for four earned runs on seven hits against the Philadelphia Phillies in his final tune-up outing. That said, he’s not entering the season with much momentum, so I’m taking McCormick to do some damage against him at plus-money odds with my MLB player props.
Pick: McCormick Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners – 9:40 pm ET
It can be a little risky taking strikeout props at this point in the season. We learned that the hard way with Tarik Skubal yesterday. Skubal had six strikeouts through five innings and I needed him to have seven. He then went the entire sixth without a strikeout, and the Tigers pulled him after that. Skubal was at 83 pitches when they gave the ball to somebody else. If this was a month later in the season, he probably pitches the seventh and gets the job done. So, be careful when playing Overs on this market. But I’m still going to it with Nick Pivetta here.
Last season, the Mariners had the second-highest strikeout rate (25.8%) in the league. And Seattle figures to be there again in 2024. Well, Pivetta is a good swing-and-miss pitcher. In his Spring Training start against the Minnesota Twins on March 18th, Pivetta struck out five batters in 4.0 innings. Then, in his final tune-up start, Pivetta struck out nine hitters in 6.0 innings in another meeting with the Twins. So, he’s really ramping up and the fact he was able to pitch 6.0 innings was big.
Pivetta also averaged 8.0 strikeouts per game in two meetings with the Mariners last season. With that in mind, I’m willing to take a shot on this at plus-money odds with today’s MLB player props.
Pick: Pivetta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
Corbin Carroll didn’t get in on Arizona’s fun yesterday, as he went 0 for 3 in the team’s 16-1 win over the Rockies. But lefty Kyle Freeland was on the bump for Colorado in that game. Tonight, it’ll be righty Cal Quantrill taking the ball. Last season, Carroll did most of his damage against righties, batting .286 with 10 triples, 27 doubles, 21 homers and 66 RBIs against them. So, he should be a lot more comfortable at the plate here. Carroll also batted .296 against fastballs and .295 against breaking pitches last season, according to Baseball Savant. Well, fastballs, cutters and curves made up 77% of the pitches Quantrill threw last season. That should make this a great matchup for the 23-year-old. He can occasionally struggle with offspeed pitches, but Quantrill likely won’t go to those very often. I’ll pounce on situations like this one with my MLB player props all year.
Pick: Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (-109)
