MLB Player Props for Wednesday, May 1
The 2024 MLB season is finally here. After another wild offseason and an exciting couple of weeks of Spring Training, we’re ready for some games that matter. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Wednesday, May 1st.
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Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays – 3:07 pm ET
The Royals are beginning to slip when it comes to wRC+ against right-handed pitching, as they have gone from 10th in the league to 14th in the last week. But I still like Kansas City’s lineup, especially against righties. And I think the Royals have a shot at getting back on track against Chris Bassitt today.
This season, Bassitt is just 2-4 with a 5.64 ERA. And the righty is coming off a very rough performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he gave up seen earned on nine hits in just 2.2 innings. Bassitt has also seen his strikeout rate come down to the lowest mark he has had since 2020, and his hard hit percentage is in the 40s for the first time since 2016. Hitters simply aren’t having problems with his sinker, which is his go-to pitch. And I think the Royals will similarly give him trouble.
Pick: Bassitt Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-119)
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels – 4:07 pm ET
Zack Wheeler is just 2-3 this season, despite having a 1.93 ERA. But I like the righty to get in the win column this evening. Wheeler, who is one of the most untouchable pitchers in baseball, is going up against a Los Angeles offense that is just 18th in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. And the man responsible for the Angels not being at the bottom of MLB, Mike Trout, is out indefinitely with a knee injury. With that in mind, there are some darker days ahead for this Angels offense, and I just don’t see them getting to Wheeler here. Meanwhile, Philadelphia should be able to do some damage against Patrick Sandoval, which would set Wheeler up nicely to record a win.
Pick: Wheeler To Record A Win (-125)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
I haven’t been shy about backing Yoshinobu Yamamoto this season, as I believe his strikeout totals have been way too low. And that’s no different in tonight’s start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite the fact that Yamamoto has at least six strikeouts in each of his last four starts, you can get plus-money odds on the 25-year-old to hit that mark again. Of course, Arizona is a really good team when it comes to avoiding strikeouts, but I simply can’t help myself here.
Yamamoto is in the top 10% of the league in strikeout rate, as that numbers sit up at 31.9%. He has also been more dangerous as a swing-and-miss pitcher on the road. That said, I’m not sold on Yamamoto rolling into the desert and completely shutting Arizona down. But I’d be surprised if he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, even if it’s a shaky start. We have seen him do it already.
Pick: Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 – 1.5 units)
Tuesday’s Plays
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