Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB action…
4:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-180, 8)
The Royals (1-6) just dropped three of four at home to the Jays, falling 6-3 on Thursday as +185 home dogs. On the flip side, the Giants (3-3) just took two of three from the White Sox, winning 16-6 yesterday as +105 road dogs. In this late afternoon Interleague series opener, Kansas City hands the ball to righty Brad Keller (0-1, 3.86 ERA) and San Francisco counters with fellow righty Alex Cobb (0-0, 2.45 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -160 home favorite and the Royals +145 road dog. Pros have gotten down hard on San Francisco, steaming the Giants up from -160 to -180. San Francisco is receiving 86% of bets and 93% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Favorites with 10-cents of steam or more are 25-13 (66%) this season. The Giants have the edge at the plate (.218 vs .155). San Francisco also has value as an Interleague favorite (the lack of familiarity benefits the better team) and a favorite in a low total (8) game (the fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely they are to come from the better team).
6:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (-225, 7.5)
The Athletics (2-4) just dropped two of three at home to the Guardians, falling 6-4 in extra innings on Wednesday as +115 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Rays (6-0) are the only undefeated team in MLB and just swept the Nationals, winning 7-2 on Wednesday as -275 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Oakland taps lefty Ken Waldichuk (0-1, 9.53 ERA) and Tampa Bay sends out righty Zach Eflin (1-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -205 home favorite and the Athletics a +180 road dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Rays up from -205 to -225. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 138-68 (67%) since 2022. Tampa Bay is 60-42 (59%) against lefties since 2021. Tampa Bay has the better bats (.284 vs .201) and better pitching (2.00 ERA vs 5.79 ERA). Pros have also leaned over, as the total is 7.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 8.
