Game 3 New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction:
The Milwaukee Brewers battled back in Game Two of their National League Wild Card series with the New York Mets to force a winner-take-all Game Three on Thursday. They turn to rookie Tobias Myers for a big start on the mound.
Myers enters with an ERA of 3.00 for the season, but the advanced numbers are not as dominant as the ERA. Myers has given up 1.2 home runs per nine innings and has a 3.91 fielding independent. His 81.1% strand rate is the seventh-best among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this season.
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Backing up Myers is a Brewers bullpen that was second in the league in bullpen ERA at 3.11 during the regular season. It’s a big disadvantage for the Mets, who were 17th in the league with a 4.03 bullpen ERA and had an eighth-inning meltdown in Game Two that led to a Game Three.
This becomes all the more important with the Mets having last had an off day last Thursday and the Brewers having used their bullpen for 10 1/3 innings the past two days, though normal starter Aaron Civale ate three innings in Game One.
New York counters with a lineup that has had success hitting on the road this season. The Mets’ .254 road batting average ranks seventh in the league, and their nearly 4.8 runs per game ranks eighth.
Jose Quintana starts for the Mets. He enters Thursday on one of the best stretches of his career, having surrendered only four total runs, three of which were earned, in his last six starts.
Even with this good stretch, Quintana owns a 3.75 ERA this season and a 4.56 fielding independent with 3.3 walks per nine innings issued while getting only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
At the plate, the Brewers right-handers have seen a slight dip in power against left-handed pitchers, but they have an identical .326 on-base percentage against both lefties and righties. In the regular season, they ranked sixth in the league with 4.8 runs per game.
Though both starting pitchers enter Thursday in great form, their advanced numbers show that both due for regression. These teams both have familiarity with each other’s bullpen, as this is the second series in the span of seven days these teams are playing, coupled with both teams having went heavily to their bullpens recently. This decisive game will have offensive fireworks.
MLB Pick: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
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