When handicapping the College World Series finals, it is easy to make one guarantee. The winner will be a marquee SEC program led by a well-respected coach finally bringing himself and his school the ultimate Omaha victory. Such is the case when Tennessee faces conference rival Texas A&M in the championship series which begins Saturday evening.
The Volunteers and Aggies spent most of the season near the top of the rankings. All along the way garnering betting and media attention. Most fans associate these teams and their coaches, Tony Vitello and Jim Schlossnagle, with college baseball dominance. However, neither of these programs nor their coaches have ever won a College World Series. That will change for one after the best-of-three championship series.
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This upcoming series also culminates one of the main themes we have stressed while handicapping the college baseball postseason. This is a favorite heavy market where chalk tends to hold and bettors must be willing to lay a lot of juice. Favorites went 10-1 in Omaha.
No.1 nationally seeded Tennessee now plays No.3 seeded Texas A&M, so the bettors who adhered to this philosophy likely see a profit on the near horizon. For those late to the party and looking to get some late Omaha action, Jello shots might provide more of a return than any wager can. Tennessee opens at -176 as the series favorite over A&M at +142. At some books, the Vols have even eclipsed the -200 threshold.
This line demonstrates another key college baseball theme we have emphasized this season – get your futures early and often instead of finally turning your attention to the sport come NCAA tournament time. Both teams were deemed favorites from the start and prices were still out there near 20-1 for both of them. Those high-odds “favorites” allow for some maneuverability in conjunction with longer-odds teams that can then be monetized during a double-elimination tournament.
Perhaps the best betting option currently available is for those with Tennessee futures to consider getting some A&M for protection.
Why Tennessee?
Tennessee blitzed right through Bracket 1 in Omaha. Yes, there are those like Matt Youmans who will point out the Vols could have—make that should have—lost to Florida State in their opening game if Blake Burke’s check swing had been called a strike. Instead, it was deemed a ball, and Tennessee came out with a 12-11 victory. After that though, they weren’t challenged during a 6-1 win over North Carolina and a 7-2 victory in a rematch with FSU.
During those three Omaha games, Tennessee demonstrated all its strengths. Its top players produced: Christian Moore hit for the cycle against FSU; Billy Amick had four hits and three runs scored in 13 at-bats; Dylan Dreiling had six hits and four RBIs; and Burke homered in the second game against FSU to give the Vols five players with more than 20 HRs this season.
On the mound, ace Drew Beam looked on track in his win over UNC and Zander Sechrist allowed just two earned runs in 6.1 innings during the elimination win over the Seminoles. In the opening game of the championship series, Vitello could go with Beam or the combination of Chris Stamos as an opener backed by reliever AJ Causey.
Whoever starts won’t impact DraftKings’ opening game line (Tennessee -154, A&M +120) because of what the Vols can do with the bats.
The Case Against Tennessee
Hard to find a reason to go against this current juggernaut other than Vitello and friends have the pressure to win by being the No.1 overall seed. The Vols have stumbled previously with high expectations and 1999 Miami is the only team to win a title after starting the tournament as the top overall seed.
Why Texas A&M?
They too, other than a close opening game, had a relatively easy time through the bracket. The pitching was outstanding, led by Ryan Prager, Justin Lamkin, and Evan Aschenbeck, the best late-inning arm in Omaha.
The offense was also solid, especially at the top of the lineup with Gavin Grahovac and Jace LaViolette. Kaeden Kent also has lengthened the Aggies lineup with five College World Series hits.
The Case Against Texas A&M
When facing the best team in the country, the injuries the Aggies have fought through should finally catch up with them. Star Braden Montgomery has been out of action with a broken ankle and No.2 starter Shane Sdao is also on the shelf. LaViolette is now limping around with a hamstring problem. Jackson Appel and Hayden Schott are contributing but also dealing with health issues.
Who Benefits Most from Rest?
Both teams get a few days off before the start of the championship series. While that may appear to benefit the Aggies, who are dealing with plenty of injuries, this very well could work best for Tennessee.
The Vols should score and have the pitching depth to make multiple changes if a game turns into a slugfest. With these added days of rest, Vitello will show no hesitation in going to a fresh arm in the bullpen.
During their three CWS games, the Vols had 12 pitching appearances compared to the Aggies’ 9 in the same amount of games.
History Lesson
These two conference rivals only faced each other once this season. That came in Hoover during the SEC tournament on May 24th when Tennessee won 7-4.
While I tend to look past regular season games when handicapping the college baseball tournament, this one does have meaning. Both teams were in postseason form, and in that game, Texas A&M was relatively healthy with Montgomery in the starting lineup. The Vols pitching combo of Stamos and Causey combined to give up just three runs over 7.1 innings. That win over A&M put Tennessee on its current blistering pace of 12 wins over its last 13 contests.
Future Shopping
For those bettors moved to make a futures wager on this championship series, there should be a plan for either side. If anyone wants to take Tennessee at this high price, do it now because it will only go higher. The Vols have a national profile that may draw in some public bettors and all the A&M injuries are going to be a major storyline heading into the series.
Expect to hear a lot of chatter about Tennessee’s record-setting home run achievements. Bettors who think the final series will finally turn the favorite tide, wait until Saturday to make a contrarian wager on the series.
If a Tennessee condensed rollover parlay comes to mind, recent history suggests the championship series is going three games. It has happened seven of the last 10 times. Backing Tennessee in the opening game at -154 before it rises is worth a play.
What Comes After the College World Series?
After the College World Series, for the players such as Jac Caglianone and Vance Honeycutt, who saw their already blue chip stock price soar in Omaha, it will be the MLB draft on July 14th. For bettors, it is time to focus on college football futures.
