Another glorious baseball Saturday awaits us. Plenty of aces will take the mound, including Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, and Jared Jones. There are wall-to-wall games from 1:10 p.m. to 10:10 p.m. ET, giving us plenty of options for MLB best bets and props.
Below are three of my MLB best bets for Saturday, June 22, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
1:10 pm ET
Just hear me out on this one…
Kenta Maeda has a 4.5 strikeout line versus the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.
The SouthSiders carry the third-worst K% in June and posted a 25% K rate over the last 30 days versus right-handed pitchers with a 13.3% swinging strike rate (bad) and a 30.2% chase rate (also bad).
Chicago is also batting just .207 against righties over the past month with a .617 OPS. This should allow Maeda to hang around in the game a bit longer due to their lack of…well anything.
Maeda may not be an ideal target for strikeouts on most days, but at a solid plus-money price, I love his Over on Saturday afternoon.
MLB Best Bet: Kenta Maeda Over 4.5 K (+125)
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
2:20 pm ET
Now let’s look at a different pitcher listed at 4.5 strikeouts for Saturday…
Jameson Taillon carries a meager 16.4% punchout rate this season while landing in the 4th percentile in Whiff rate. In short, the man is not fooling many hitters.
The Cubs right-hander will take on a Mets lineup on Saturday that he managed to collect one strikeout against earlier this year over 7⅓ innings.
That was not a typo.
In addition, New York has an 18.7% K rate versus right-handed pitching in the last two weeks with a 9.8% swinging strike rate and a 25.2% chase rate.
I will gladly back the Under at plus money or take a heavily juiced Under 5.5 if that is what your sportsbook offers.
MLB Best Bet: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 K (+120)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
4:10 pm ET
The Houston Astros are the most difficult team in MLB to strike out.
Houston has earned an MLB-best 17.9% strikeout rate this season and has posted a 19.7% K rate over the last 14 days versus right-handed pitching.
This is bad news for Orioles ace Corbin Burnes, who has failed to hit the Over on his 6.5 strikeout line in all six of his road starts this season and 12 of his 15 outings overall.
The Astros do not see many pitches, ranking dead last in pitches per plate appearance in MLB. However, they do considerable damage against righties, sporting the third-highest wRC+ in the American League.
Bottom line: This line is a touch high and should probably be posted at 5.5, so we are going to lock in the Under.
MLB Best Bet: Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 K (-135)
