MLB Best Bets and Props:
Another glorious day of baseball awaits us on Saturday with wall-to-wall games from 2:10 p.m. to 10:10 p.m. ET, giving us plenty of options for MLB best bets and props.
Below are two of my MLB best bets for Saturday, June 29, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
4:10 pm ET
The Grimace-powered Mets have been on a roll in June, but they have given southpaws a hard time in the strikeout department all season.
New York carries the 6th-lowest K rate versus left-handers (19.7%) this year and have recently been even more stingy, posting an 18.4% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
Astros ace Framber Valdez will likely have difficulty collecting punchouts in Queens on Saturday afternoon. The Mets have an 86% in-zone contact rate over the past month with only a 38.4% ground ball rate (which is Framber’s bread and butter).
This line should be 4.5, making it a solid prop this weekend.
MLB Best Bet: Framber Valdez Under 5.5 K (-135)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
4:10 pm ET
Justin Steele has provided the Cubs with quality innings since the end of May, going Over 17.5 Outs in six of his last seven outings.
Steele has also gone Over the 17.5 Outs mark in four of his previous five road starts, including May 27 versus the Brewers (21 Outs).
While Milwaukee tends to take a lot of pitches, posting the 5th-most pitches per plate appearance this season, six of the last 10 southpaws have tossed at least six frames against them.
Over the last 30 days, the Brew Crew has a 49.5% ground ball rate with just 5.9% barrels per plate appearance against left-handed pitching.
Considering Steele’s track record and Milwaukee’s recent form, the Over on 17.5 Outs seems like a smart bet.
MLB Best Bet: Justin Steele Over 17.5 Outs (-135)
