MLB Best Bets and Props:
It’s another Sunday in MLB, so you need to be extra careful when checking lineups and monitoring player news due to the unpredictable nature of getaway games. Nearly every major league team plays during the afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 11:35 PM (ET) between the Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Nationals. Below are three of my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, August 11, but price shop for the best odds available.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
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San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
1:40 pm ET
Dylan Cease will take the mound on Sunday with a fantastic matchup versus the Miami Marlins. Miami enters the game with the second-lowest pitches per plate appearance in MLB, as well as the lowest walk rate in the entire league. This should allow Cease to work deep into the game, with most books projecting at least six innings out of the 28-year-old.
This bodes well for Dylan’s strikeout line, which currently sits at Over 7.5 for even money.
Cease boasts an impressive 32.4% punchout rate in 2024, while Miami carries a 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
Cease is set up for a lengthy outing after San Diego went through consecutive games that went into extra innings. They will likely give their ace every opportunity to stay in the game and provide the bullpen with much-needed rest.
The bottom line is that we have all the ingredients to hit the Over on 7.5 K on Sunday; we just have to watch Dylan Cease cook.
MLB Best Bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 K (+100)
*Would take Over 7.5 K up to -120
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
4:10 pm ET
Christopher Sanchez is a different pitcher on the road, carrying a 4.83 ERA, compared to a stellar 2.32 ERA at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Sanchez is now tasked with taking on a Diamondbacks lineup that works deep into counts and dominates left-handed pitching. Arizona holds the highest batting average versus southpaws this season (.278) with the second-highest on-base percentage (.339).
In addition, the Diamondbacks have posted a mere 18.8% strikeout rate against left-handers in the past 30 days.
There is a solid opportunity to attack two different betting lines on Sunday. The first is Sanchez’s Under 17.5 Outs prop.
Arizona has held 10 of the last 13 southpaws Under 17.5 Outs, while Sanchez has failed to cross the line in all but two outings on the road.
The other prop line to invest in is Under 4.5 strikeouts. Sanchez has a pedestrian 19.1% strikeout rate and almost every metric lines up against him on Sunday.
MLB Best Bet: Christopher Sanchez u17.5 Outs (+130) & Under 4.5 K (-145)
*Would take Under 17.5 Outs up to -110
*Would take Under 4.5 K up to -160
