MLB Best Bets and Props:
It’s the final Sunday before the MLB trade deadline, which means you need to be extra careful when checking lineups and monitoring player news. Almost every major league team plays during the afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 11:35 AM (ET) between the Cincinnati Reds and the Tampa Bay Rays. Below are two of my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, July 28, but price shop for the best odds available.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
Top MLB Resources:
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
4:05 pm ET
Austin Gomber has been a bit of a train wreck away from Coors Field this season, posting a 5.61 ERA and conceding a .291 batting average.
On Sunday, the Rockies southpaw will take on a Giants offense that takes the eighth-most pitches per plate appearance, while generating the third-highest on-base percentage to left-handed pitchers.
That is a recipe for a short outing, and Gomber has hit the Under on his posted 17.5 Outs line in seven of his 10 outings on the road. I would play this line up to -145.
MLB Best Bet: Austin Gomber u17.5 Outs (-125)
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
7:10 pm ET
Sometimes, sportsbooks are a bit too aggressive in certain prop categories, and pitcher walks are certainly one of them.
In general, it is very difficult for the average starting pitcher to walk three batters in an outing. Yet, we are starting to see books routinely post 2.5 BB lines.
I’m sure you see where I am going with this.
Carlos Rodón may have a less-than-stellar 7.2% walk rate, but he has only hit Under 2.5 BB in eight out of his last 10 starts this season and five of the last six.
The Red Sox have a below average walk rate versus southpaws in the last 30 days and have allowed 16 of the previous 22 left-handed starters to hit Under 2.5 walks.
Long story short: Rodón can certainly walk three, but the value is most definitely on the Under. I would play this line up to -150.
MLB Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 BB (-130)
