MLB Best Bets and Props
Sunday can be a tricky day for MLB best bets and props due to getaway days and players receiving the afternoon off. However, almost every single team is active during the afternoon, making it one of the best days to watch baseball. Just be sure to double-check lineups.
Below are two of my MLB best bets for Sunday, June 16, but price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I am going to be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
4:10 pm ET
Brady Singer has been far less effective on the road this season compared to the friendly confines for Kauffman Stadium.
In fact, the right-hander is an entirely different pitcher, carrying a 5.00 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, and 10.8 K/BB% in away games while sporting a sharp 3.08 FIP, 1.01 WHIP and. 20.2 K-BB% at home.
This trend is going to be further exacerbated on Sunday when Singer takes on a dangerous Dodgers lineup that sports the 4th-highest on-base percentage and third-highest wRC+ versus righties in 2024.
A key reason for this is the mass volume of pitches each hitter sees while in the box. Los Angeles sees the second-highest pitches per plate appearance in the league, allowing them to study a pitcher’s arsenal and drive up their pitch count.
This makes Singer’s Under 17.5 Outs line a must-target prop on Sunday. The 27-year-old has hit the Under in all five of his away starts this season, and I see no reason for that trend to cease.
MLB Best Bet: Brady Singer u17.5 Outs (-115)
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets
1:40 pm ET
The San Diego Padres have been a thorn in the side of right-handed pitchers this season, posting the 2nd-highest on-base percentage and wRC+.
Over the last 30 days, the Padres are batting .285 with a .784 OPS, and a .334 xwOBA against righties with a 29.7% line drive rate.
Tylor Megill is going to have a difficult time hitting his posted 17.5 Outs prop on Sunday. The Mets starter is Under this mark in four of five starts this season, including his two most recent outings against subpar competition (WAS/MIA).
To make matters worse, seven of the last eight right-handed pitchers have failed to hit the Over on 17.5 Outs versus San Diego. Backing the Under on Megill’s Outs prop is a solid investment, especially with a well-rested Mets bullpen.
MLB Best Bet: Tylor Megill u17.5 Outs (-110)
