Almost every major league team plays this Sunday afternoon, with the Diamondbacks and Phillies scheduled for an early 11:30 a.m. (ET) start. Below are two of my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, June 23, but price shop for the best odds available to you.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
4:07 pm ET
Oakland’s starting pitcher Hogan Harris tends to go well Over or well Under his posted strikeout line of 4.5 this season. For example, the southpaw has posted totals of 2, 7, 3, 5, and 3 punchouts in his previous five outings.
On Sunday afternoon I am banking on the 27-year-old to fall below that threshold when he takes on the Twins. In the last 30 days, Minnesota boasts one of the lowest strikeout rates versus left-handed pitching (17.8%) with a mere 10% swinging strike rate.
In fact, the Twins have been even more stingy over the last two weeks, sporting an impressive 11% strikeout rate against southpaws with a 92.3% in-zone contact rate.
Overall, Harris simply does not possess an impressive put-away arsenal. The A’s lefty sits in the 18% percentile in whiff rate and 11% percentile in chase rate among MLB pitchers this season.
MLB Best Bet: Hogan Harris u4.5 Strikeouts (-123)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
4:10 pm ET
Michael King has been rock solid this season, posting a 3.49 ERA over 87 ⅔ innings. However, the 29-year-old has not been very efficient.
The right-hander has a 1.34 WHIP at home and has failed to eclipse 17.5 Outs in six of his last seven games at Petco Park.
This trend will be made worse by the visiting Brewers, who see the fifth most pitches per plate appearance this season. Milwaukee’s ability to drive up a starter’s pitch count has caused 10 of the previous 11 righthanders to fall below 17.5 Outs.
At plus-money, Michael King’s Under 17.5 Outs prop is a solid investment.
MLB Best Bet: Michael King u17.5 Outs (+102)
