MLB Best Bets and Props:
Sunday is an incredible day for baseball fans. Almost every major league team plays during the afternoon, with the Pirates and Braves scheduled for an early 11:35 AM (ET) start. Below are two of my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, June 30, but price shop for the best odds available.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
Top MLB Resources:
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals
2:10 pm ET
Under 3.5 strikeouts is a dangerous line to invest in when you consider how low of a bar it is. However, on rare occasions, it can still be a screaming value.
I’m sure you see where I am going with this.
Logan Allen has failed to eclipse 3.5 strikeouts in four out of his last five outings, averaging 2.8 punchouts per game during that stretch. On the year, the southpaw carries a mere 18.5% strikeout rate (22nd percentile).
On Sunday, Allen will be tasked with taking on a Royals team that has proven to be one of the most difficult lineups in MLB to strike out this season.
Kansas City’s impressive 16% strikeout rate versus left-handers over the last 30 days is in the second percentile. They have accomplished this with a strong command of the strike zone, boasting a 10.1% swinging strike rate and an 86% in-zone contact rate.
Long story short, this matchup is the perfect recipe to cook up an Under prop.
MLB Best Bet: Logan Allen u3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers
2:10 pm ET
Kyle Hendricks is a shell of his former self, despite pitching an absolute gem during his most recent outing versus the Giants (7 IP, 2 ER).
The veteran right-hander has a 6.87 ERA and 5.08 FIP over 57 ⅔ innings this season, which turns into a 7.50 ERA and 6.69 FIP on the road.
I could get into more detail, but you get the picture.
On Sunday, Hendricks takes on the Milwaukee Brewers and has a posted Outs prop of 17.5, despite going Under this total in eight of his nine starts this season.
To make matters worse (for Hendricks), the Brew Crew has the sixth-highest wRC+ in baseball versus right-handers while generating the fifth-highest pitches per plate appearance.
All signs point to Hendricks having an abbreviated outing in a tough divisional matchup on Sunday, making Under 17.5 Outs a strong prop bet to target.
MLB Best Bet: Kyle Hendricks u17.5 Outs (-129)
