MLB Best Bets and Props
The Sunday MLB schedule is my favorite of the week because almost every team plays a day game. However, it can be a tricky day for MLB best bets and props due to getaway days and players receiving the afternoon off. So be sure to double-check lineups.
Below are three of my MLB best bets for Sunday, May 19, but price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals
1:05 pm ET
The first play for Sunday’s MLB slate is a simple one.
Matthew Liberatore will be on five days rest and was officially added to the Cardinals’ starting rotation three days ago by manager Oli Marmol.
In addition, Liberatore tossed 60 pitches during his latest outing. This should clear the way for the southpaw to throw north of 70 pitches against the Red Sox, who sport a slightly below-average 98 wRC+ against left-handers.
At plus-money, we just need Liberatore to get one out in the fourth inning. All signs point to the Over on 9.5 Outs being a rock-solid investment.
MLB Best Bet: Matthew Liberatore o9.5 Outs (+105)
Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
1:35 pm ET
The Yankees offense has been lethal over the past two weeks. During that span, New York is batting .293 with an .871 OPS, 43.6% hard hit rate, and a .397 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
This is bad news for White Sox starter Chris Flexen, who is carrying a 4.56 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA this season with a 9.5% K-BB rate.
The Yankees, who boast the 4th-highest wRC+ at home this season (122), should have no issue putting runs on the board early and often against the 29-year-old.
I project the Bronx Bombers to score Over three runs on Sunday during the first five innings, making their F5 team total a solid bet.
MLB Best Bet: Yankees Over 2.5 F5 TT (-130)
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
1:35 pm ET
Corbin Burnes is tasked with handling the Seattle Mariners lineup on Sunday.
Over the last 14 days, the Mariners carry a 27.5% strikeout rate with a .302 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Seattle also sports the 4th-lowest on-base percentage in baseball (.301).
This makes Burnes’ Outs prop of Over 17.5 a bargain at just -130. The Orioles right-hander has hit this mark in six of his nine starts this season and averages over 93 pitches per outing.
This prop should be priced closer to -180.
MLB Best Bet: Corbin Burnes Over 17.5 Outs (-130)
Other MLB Bets To Target on Sunday:
Parlay: Jordan Hicks Over 4.5 K
& Sean Manaea o4.5 K (+180)
Carlos Rodon: Win (+114)
Matt Manning Under 16.5 Outs (-115)
Royals Over 2.5 F5 Team Total (-115)
