MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 13th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Top MLB Resources:
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Garrett Crochet vs Luis Castillo
Garrett Crochet was the best kept secret in baseball for a while, but that is no longer the case. The southside southpaw has been brilliant in his last eight starts.
In 46.0 innings Crochet has allowed seven earned runs and struck out 63 hitters. Over this stretch his ERA (1.37) matches up with his FIP (1.91), which is a sign that what we’re seeing is legitimate.
Crochet’s success extends beyond this hot run since April.
For the season, Crochet’s statistical profile reads like that of a Cy Young candidate. He ranks in the 70th percentile in chase rate (30.5%), the 86th percentile in whiff rate (30.9%) and the 96th percentile in strikeout rate (34.3%).
His contact numbers are well above average. He has a 5.6% barrel rate allowed, and only 36.2% of batted balls are considered hard-hit.
The Mariners should be shaking in their boots today.
Seattle comes into this contest dead-last in strikeout rate (27.2%). Against Crochet, that is an issue. The Mariners also rank 21st in wRC+ (96) and 23rd in wOBA (.296) against left-handed pitchers this season.
On the other end, we have the White Sox lineup.
Chicago is the worst statistical lineup in the league, and on the road it is worse. The White Sox rank 29th in wRC+ (76) and wOBA (.274) away from home. They strikeout 25.4% of the time, and they face Luis Castillo tonight coming off a poor start.
Castillo’s reputation is greater than the returns, but he is still an extremely effective pitcher. He owns a 2.95 ERA and a 3.36 FIP when pitching at home this season. Opponents are hitting .244 against him in Seattle and he has struck out 27.7% of hitters.
With these two on the hill not much offense should be expected early. The consensus total for the first five innings is 3.25 but let’s have some fun tonight. Instead of betting that number under bettors can find alternate totals. It’s worth shaving off the half-run and getting a little bit more back for the investment.
Play: F5 UNDER 2.5 (+130)
