MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 27th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
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Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
Jon Gray vs Corbin Burnes
Jon Gray was blown up two starts ago by the New York Grimets, but do not let that distract you. Gray has been dealing.
In 15 appearances and 13 starts the Rangers’ right-hander has a 3.03 ERA with a 2.96 FIP. Gray has been very solid in generating swings and misses. He ranks in the 74th percentile in chase rate (30.7%), the 61st percentile in whiff rate (26.8%) and he has struck out 22.7% of opposing hitters.
The betting market opened with Baltimore and Corbin Burnes as -205 favorites, but we’ve since seen this line move in Texas’ direction. It is a move that I agree with. Gray has enough in his arsenal to go head-to-head with this lineup in Baltimore.
Having said that, the play won’t be on the side, but the total.
The probability of the Rangers winning this game is higher than what the opening price would indicate. Still, it’s a team which is 29th in wRC+ (78) since the beginning of the month. They are also facing Burnes who more than capable of handling this mundane group.
So, let’s expect Gray to hold up his end while the Rangers continue to scuffle. Under is the play in the first five innings in Baltimore this evening.
Play: F5 UNDER 4 (-120)
