MLB Best Bets for Thursday, May 9th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Top MLB Resources:
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
The Double-Edged Sword
In the days since the last column we saw some good examples of the upside and downside of handicapping these pitchers based on their metrics. Specifically, the practice of using the delta between a pitcher’s ERA and FIP as a starting point to find whether or not we can fade or follow him at the window.
Let’s start with the good: Jose Berrios.
Heading into his start against the Phillies on Tuesday, Berrios had all of the indicators worth betting against. He owned a 1.44 ERA over 43.2 innings of work, but his FIP (4.03) and xFIP (4.25) indicated there was some fraudulence in his production. A deeper look revealed a hard-hit rate of 49.2% and he owned a below-average barrel rate (8.2%). He was also generating minimal strikeout numbers. At some point he was going to pay for such transgressions, and against Philadelphia he did.
Berrios was decimated by the Phillies. He allowed 7 hits and 8 earned and he was taken deep twice in 3.2 innings. Philadelphia was on him like bad teeth on braces – thank you Jamal Crawford – and those who played into those indicators that Berrios was due for regression were rewarded. In fact, Toronto is 0-3 in the first five innings of the last three Berrios starts.
That example is extreme, but it is a good one for those who might look at Berrios in his next outing, as he still sports a 2.85 ERA. On the surface, he has been an extremely solid starter. But, there are plenty of indicators that water will eventually find its level with his statistics.
It’s not all that easy though, which leads us to MLB’s unluckiest pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti.
During VSiN Primetime last night I couldn’t help but laugh at the misfortune of the Astros’ third-ranked prospect. Arrighetti was making his fifth start of the season at Yankee Stadium, and at one point the broadcast brought up the remarkable statistics of the 24-year-old rookie.
Arrighetti walked into the start with an 8.27 ERA but his FIP (3.40) and xFIP (4.15) suggested he was pitching much better than that. His barrel rate allowed at the time would have led the majors had he qualified, and he was striking out 25.9% of hitters. His expected batting average of .240 was very strong as well, but he was getting unlucky on balls in play (.413).
Arrighetti was the antithesis of Berrios. He had every buy sign in the world. Then, the Yankees happened. New York pummeled Arrighetti for 8 hits, 5 earned runs and 3 home runs. His luck was so poor that during the Astros’ broadcast this happened while they were discussing his incredible numbers:
Yikes.
I figured focusing on these two pitchers was a good way to illustrate my process and display both the positives and negatives. Sometimes the numbers are right, and ultimately what they tell you transpires on the field of play. And sometimes, 24-year-olds go to the Bronx and get rocked by one of the best lineups in baseball.
MLB Best Bets
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Sonny Gray vs Tobias Myers
As much as I enjoy searching for the discrepancies in numbers and playing on or against them, sometimes you just have to go with a pitching mismatch.
Sonny Gray has been absolutely untouchable this season. Gray comes into this start with a 0.89 ERA and a 1.58 FIP. Hitters just cannot connect on his stuff. According to Baseball Savant, in 71 events – essentially a batted ball – only 29.6% have been considered hard-hit and he owns a 4.2% barrel rate. He ranks in the 89th and 82nd percentile in those categories respectively.
Gray’s command is elite, and he ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (33.3%) and the 77th percentile in whiff rate (29.9%). He is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and he gets a struggling Brewers lineup to pick apart.
In the column on Tuesday I mentioned Milwaukee’s struggles recently, but they ended up going 13-of-40 against Kansas City pitching. Luckily the Royals got to Rea to get a win on the wager, but the lineup was part of the handicap and that night it was wrong. Still, since April 21 this lineup is 14th in wRC+ (96) and not producing anywhere near the level it was at the beginning of the season.
I’ll also be getting Gray as my starting pitcher, and not Seth Lugo.
But, it’s not like the Cardinals are lighting the world on fire. They come into this contest 25th in wRC+ (86) and have shown little signs of life. St. Louis also just lost Willson Contreras who owns a .280/.398/.551 slash line this season; by far their most productive hitter.
Tobias Myers – Milwaukee’s starter – has not been great this season. He owns a 6.23 ERA and a 7.62 FIP through three starts. However, I’m not sure if I can trust St. Louis to get to him, even with those numbers. So instead, we’ll attack the Brewers specifically and expect they do not produce much against Gray.
Play: Brewers F5 TT UN 1.5 (-105)
