MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 28th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
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Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
Brandon Pfaadt vs Dane Dunning
Dane Dunning was the bane of many bettors’ existence last season.
He finished the season with a 3.70 ERA, but his underlying metrics painted a picture of a pitcher performing well above expectations. The regression never hit consistently, and plenty of folks – or perhaps just me – lost trying to fade him.
This season, the real Dane Dunning has stood up.
Coming into this start Dunning sports a 4.43 ERA and both his FIP (4.93) and xERA (5.39) are right in line with the poor production. One could actually make the argument he’s due for some more slippage at some point.
Dunning’s problem – there are many – is the hard contact he’s allowing. He ranks in the third percentile of pitchers in hard-hit rate (50.5%) and the second percentile in both barrel rate (14.9%) and average exit velocity (90.2). Despite that, his opponent’s batting average on balls in play is just .237 to this point.
Arizona has been perfectly average on offense this season. It ranks 14th in wRC+ (100) and wOBA (.309). Over the last month they are just 23rd in wRC+ (89) and 26th in wOBA (.293), but Dunning should raise their floor today.
Having said that, Dunning is obviously only part of the equation here. Brandon Pfaadt is the other.
Pfaadt has put together a better season than his 4.05 ERA would indicate. His xERA (3.00) and FIP (3.15) show there is room for positive regression.
Pfaadt has shown elite command. He ranks in the 88th percentile in walk rate (4.5%). His swing-and-miss numbers are not elite, but he is still above average in most categories. Pfaadt gets hitters to chase 30.3% of the time, and he has struck out 23.5% of opposing hitters.
This is all while ranking in the 83rd percentile in barrel rate (4.5%) and just above average in the 55th percentile in hard-hit rate (37.7%).
Pfaadt opposes a Texas lineup tonight that is in a similar boat as Arizona’s over the last month. The Rangers are 22nd in wRC+ (89) and 24th in wOBA (.297) since the beginning of May. It is the driving force behind the team’s current 3-12 slide.
Play: Diamondbacks F5 (-0.5, +120)
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
Triston McKenzie vs Ryan Feltner
Triston McKenzie enters this start on a roll.
Over his last 39.1 innings McKenzie owns a 2.52 ERA, and he has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just once over that span. However, his underlying metrics over that stretch paint a different picture, much like his season-long numbers do.
In those seven starts McKenzie has a 4.94 FIP. That is obviously a massive discrepancy with the 2.52 ERA posted in those outings, and it reflects a similar delta in his metrics for the season. In 10 starts this year, he sports a 3.44 ERA but a 5.48 FIP and 4.76 xERA.
The problem for McKenzie is almost everything.
He is well below average in every swing-and-miss category. The fifth-year pro ranks in the 34th percentile in strikeout rate (20.2%), 23rd percentile in whiff rate (21.4%) and the 10th percentile in chase rate (22.8%).
In the past, McKenzie has been a strikeout machine which always balanced a generally below average walk rate. This season the strikeouts are way down while his walk rate is the worst he’s had (13.9%) outside of his four starts last season.
McKenzie also ranks in the 10th percentile in barrel rate allowed (11.0%) and the 48th percentile in hard-hit rate (38.6%). This is all while generating groundballs at just a 35.4% clip.
In summation, we have a pitcher who is giving up a ton of hard-hit balls that are either line drives or flyballs. He is walking hitters at an extremely high rate and not getting hitters to strike out.
Oh, and he’s making the start today at Coors Field.
Play: Rockies F5 TT OV 2.5 (+105) | Rockies F5 (-0.5, +135)
