MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 7th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Top MLB Resources:
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
The Phillies’ Dominant Run
Before getting into the day’s best bets we should discuss the hot topic in first five wagering: the Philadelphia Phillies.
With the win in the first five frames last night Philadelphia improved to 18-1 over their last 19 games in the first five innings. A quick look at our First Five Inning Analyzer shows that the Phillies are the most profitable team in baseball in the first five innings this season.
It should come as no surprise that Philadelphia is second in starting pitching ERA (2.26) and third in FIP (3.11) over this span. The pitching for the Phillies has been a pleasant surprise, and as the metrics suggest there isn’t much sign of regression coming for these arms.
Of the starting pitchers with more than two starts Aaron Nola has the highest FIP (4.44) for the season. But, in the three starts he’s made over this run his ERA (3.15) and FIP (3.24) are right in line with one another.
Spencer Turnbull has the highest delta between his ERA (1.67) and FIP (3.24) among Phillies starters, but even that FIP would suggest Turnbull will “regress” to a pitcher the level of Logan Gilbert or Cole Irvin.
It’s not just the arms for Philadelphia either. The Phillies are second over this span in wRC+ (135) and wOBA (.363) and third in home runs (28). Not only are their pitchers performing at a high level, but they are getting incredible run support. It’s also why Philadelphia not only leads in profit for overall first five wagers, but in run line as well (28-8, +$2,087).
There are many who will continue to ride this train until it derails, and if you’ve been in it since the beginning then I do not fault you. However, those just getting involved should realize that the market is adjusting.
Take today’s game against Toronto for example. Philadelphia is -122 for the full game at DraftKings, but bettors must lay -140 for the first five innings. Generally we see about a 5-to-10 cent difference in the price between first five and game, but this is clearly larger than that.
It’s been an incredible run for bettors, but the market value is drying up quickly. Here’s to those who have been riding it. I hope you get a few more out of this run before it goes.
MLB Best Bets
Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals
Colin Rea vs Seth Lugo
Much like Walter White in Breaking Bad, Colin Rea can’t keep getting away with this.
Rea has made six starts and pitched 33.2 innings so far this season. He has a 2.67 ERA in those outings, but he continues to skirt a statistical profile that screams he must regress at some point.
Despite the strong ERA, Rea owns a 4.78 FIP and a 5.80 xERA. He has never been a strong strikeout pitcher, but this season is the worst we have seen his swing-and-miss profile. Rea is striking out hitters at a career-low rate (16.0%). He ranks in the 9th percentile in whiff rate (18.2%) and the 10th percentile in chase rate (22.3%). His expected batting average (.302) and expecting slugging (.506) rank in the bottom 7% of the league.
Rea is a pitch-to-contact guy, and those pitchers generally have some noise in their profile. But, it’s hard to ignore some of the warning signs. Especially given his past profile which isn’t exactly replete with success (Career 4.52 ERA and 4.67 FIP).
On the other end we get to back Seth Lugo. Lugo does not offer a dominant swing-and-miss profile, but his figures do not project as sharp a decline as Rea. He has a 3.43 FIP which is perfectly serviceable, and his command (6.3% walke rate) is much better. Lugo also gets to face a Brewers lineup which has lost some of its luster in recent weeks.
Milwaukee currently ranks seventh in wRC+ (113) for the season. However, since April 14 they are 17th in wRC+ (96) and since April 21 they are 20th (89). The Brewers’ power has dipped. After smacking 21 home runs in the first 13 games of the season they have just 13 in their last 15 contests. That has led to a severe drop in production. Lugo should not be in any real danger against a group that has lost its mojo.
Play: Royals -0.5 F5 (+100)
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Emerson Hancock vs Bailey Ober
Seattle’s 11th-ranked prospect has some real promise, but the start to his second stint in the majors has not been very smooth.
In 30.1 innings Emerson Hancock has a 4.75 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. Of the 12 major pitching categories on Baseball Savant, Hancock ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in 10 of them. The only above average metric for Hancock is his walk rate (6.9%) which ranks in the 67th percentile. He does not induce swings and misses, and he allows an extremely high rate of hard contact (47.9%). Those are not categories to struggle in when facing Minnesota.
The Twins come into this contest 9th in wRC+ (107) and 11th in wOBA (.318). As a whole, the unit has been mashing since April 14. They are 4th in both wRC+ (125) and wOBA (.344) over that span with 21 home runs and 110 runs scored. This group should be more than capable of getting to Hancock today.
To be fair, Bailey Ober doesn’t seem like a pitcher who can help Minnesota maintain a lead, but there are plenty of positive signs in Ober’s profile. He is well above average in walk rate (5.6%), and is among the best in the league at getting hitters to chase (33.8%). He also ranks in the 68th percentile in hard hit rate (35.6%) and his FIP (3.68) and xERA (3.60) point to some positive regression.
Play: Twins -0.5 F5 (-115)
