MLB Best Bets Today August 2:
All 30 teams are ready to take the field to start off a big weekend around Major League Baseball. Six series in each league and three interleague series are on the menu, as the month of August really gets going. We have less than two months left of the regular season and the jockeying for playoff position, especially in the Wild Card races in both leagues, gets really magnified from here on out.
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Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 2:
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-112, 9)
7:10 p.m. ET
Author’s Edit: The Giants actually announced Blake Snell as the starter after this was posted. I still like this play at the adjusted price of -108 at the time of this edit. Apologies for any confusion – I’ve added Snell stats of relevance to the write-up.
The Giants had a travel day on Thursday with a long trip to the banks of the Ohio River to take on the Reds. It will be a southpaw battle on Friday night with Kyle Harrison Blake Snell for San Francisco and Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati. Both of these teams had mostly quiet Trade Deadlines, but the Giants were a modest buyer and the Reds were a modest seller.
I think the deals for both teams could have an impact here. Let’s start with the Giants, who picked up longtime professional hitter Mark Canha from the Tigers. Canha is a guy that has a .286/.400/.457 slash with a .368 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ against lefties this season in 85 plate appearances. For his career, Canha owns a 113 wRC+ against lefties and has been an above average hitter in that split every year since 2018.
Righties have hit 18 of the 20 homers that Abbott has allowed and he is a major regression candidate at present. Over his last six starts, Abbott has 19 strikeouts against 19 walks in 32.1 innings. He has a 3.34 ERA thanks to a .242 BABIP and an 82.9% LOB%, but he has a 5.76 FIP and a 6.02 xFIP, so he’s on thin ice in my opinion. He’s also allowed eight Barrels in two starts since the All-Star Break and 17 hard-hit balls. Now he’s back at Great American Ball Park, which is typically not kind to fly ball guys in the summertime.
The Giants own a 112 wRC+ against lefties over the last 30 days and Canha should help that number. Meanwhile, the Reds have just a .278 wOBA and a 74 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days.
The other thing here is that the Giants have a fully rested bullpen in support of Harrison Snell. (Snell has a 0.75 ERA with a 2.08 FIP in four starts covering 24 innings since returning from the IL with a 30/7 K/BB ratio)
Lastly, the Reds traded Lucas Sims, who was one of the better relievers from their pen. If this is a close game, I like the Giants pen over Cincinnati’s. Add it all up and that makes for an attractive underdog. Even if the Giants use an opener for some reason, I still like this, so I’m okay with going ‘Action’ instead of ‘Listed Pitcher’. (Giants actually using Snell, not Harrison; bet still applies, but will be graded at -108 for tracking purposes).
Pick: Giants -108 (new price with Snell as SP)
