MLB Best Bets Today August 23:
Fifteen games featuring 30 teams send us into another weekend on the diamond. We’ve got seven interleague series again, which seems to have been a common theme over the last few weeks. We’ll start to get more division games in September, but the league is just cycling through all the matchups still.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 23:
Chicago Cubs (-125, 8) at Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
The Cubs and Marlins kick off a weekend set with Kyle Hendricks and Max Meyer. The Cubs are still in the NL Wild Card mix, though time is running out with the ground that they have to make up. The Marlins are not in the mix for anything and are just 6-13 this month with losses in six of their last seven games.
Meyer has made five starts since getting recalled and owns an 8.10 ERA with a 6.85 FIP in those 23.1 innings of work. He’s given up 21 runs on 32 hits and seven homers, plus he’s allowed a 53.8% Hard Hit% and a 15.4% Barrel%. Four of his five starts have featured a single-digit SwStr% and hitters are chasing at a very low rate, despite the fact that he’s thrown a lot of first-pitch strikes to work ahead in the count.
Hendricks has made 10 starts since his return to the rotation and has a 4.73 ERA with a 4.61 FIP, but he’s allowed 13 of his 28 runs in two of those 10 starts. He was crushed in road outings by the Brewers and Royals. Otherwise, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in six of the other eight starts and three in each of the other two. Obviously there’s no swing and miss in his profile, but he’s allowed a 35.4% Hard Hit% and a 7.6% Barrel%, so he’s done well with his contact management numbers.
The Cubs pen is rested and has actually been one of the better ones this month with a 3.13 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. They rank sixth in fWAR in the small sample, as Craig Counsell & Co. have finally stabilized that group.
Pick: Cubs -125
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 7)
7:10 p.m. ET
After a 1-5 road trip, the Guardians welcome the Rangers to Progressive Field. It will be Nathan Eovaldi for the visitors and Tanner Bibee for the home squad. Cleveland is up against it once again in the starting rotation, as Alex Cobb is out with a fractured finger nail and the rest of the group is being held together with bubble gum and duct tape.
But, Cleveland badly needs a win. And first-year manager Stephen Vogt has a well-rested bullpen in hopes of getting it. The only guy unavailable is Connor Gillispie, who threw 57 pitches yesterday in the 6-1 loss.
Bibee missed about two weeks not that long ago for a shoulder problem. In two starts since, he’s gone 5.2 and 5.0 innings and thrown 84 and 83 pitches, respectively. Even with the team’s current struggles, they’re going to be in the postseason, so Vogt is not going to push it any harder than he has to with Bibee. In those two starts, Bibee has allowed a lot of hard contact as well.
Guardians starters also have the fewest plate appearances against the third time through the order. The proof is in the pudding, not only because we’ve long known about the TTO penalty, but also that the Guardians have allowed a league-high .508 SLG and .854 OPS in that split. Mix in a healthy, rested bullpen and a manager who aggressively avoids the third time through, I don’t think Bibee completes six innings tonight. They’re also erring on the side of caution with his arm.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
