MLB Best Bets Today August 30:
A doubleheader in Cincinnati kicks off the Friday MLB card, which features 16 games. The only early game is Game 1 between the Brewers and Reds, as everybody else will conclude under the lights. We’ve got just over a month left of the MLB season and a lot of things left to be decided, so there are a lot of big games remaining.
That being said, we have quite a few big favorites on the card tonight and this is not the best weekend of series. We’ll see what kinds of betting opportunities that provides.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 30:
San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 7.5)
6:50 p.m. ET
The Padres and Rays open up a weekend set at the Trop with Martin Perez and Taj Bradley. The Padres were +105 for the full game at time of publish, but +130 for the 1st 5. You won’t often see a spread that big, but Bradley has a 3.77 ERA with a 4.07 FIP and Perez has a 4.60 ERA with a 5.01 FIP.
However, I think Padres +130 is a good value and too high of a price. Let’s look at what Perez has done since going from the Pirates to the Padres. It hasn’t always been pretty and there are regression signs in the profile, but some pitch usage changes have him with a 2.70 ERA over 26.2 innings. He’s struck out 24 and walked seven. His FIP is 5.19 and he’s run on the right side of LOB variance, but it isn’t like the Rays have been setting the world ablaze against lefties. They rank 20th in wOBA in the second half.
If we want to stick with five-start samples, Bradley has a 7.96 ERA with a 6.13 FIP in his last 26 innings of work. He’s allowed 24 runs on 33 hits and given up seven homers. The Padres are fourth in wOBA against RHP in the second half at .343 and have a 124 wRC+.
Given the recent form of these two guys and the two offenses, I can’t pass on +130. If it loses, so be it, but this looks like a good value for tonight.
Pick: Padres 1st 5 (+130)
Seattle Mariners (-192, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
It is a big weekend for the Angels, as Italian-born Samuel Aldegheri makes his MLB debut tonight and Caden Dana makes his MLB debut tomorrow. Aldegheri will become the eighth Italian to make his MLB debut and the fifth pitcher. He’ll be the first pitcher since 1950 to make it to The Show.
It is a tremendous accomplishment and I hate to rain on the parade, but he is making a big leap from Double-A to MLB. He made five starts at Double-A, four with the Angels after he was part of the Carlos Estevez deal with Philadelphia. In those five starts, he’s allowed 14 runs on 21 hits over 22.1 innings with a 31/11 K/BB ratio. The swing-and-miss rates he’s shown in the minors have been impressive, but a lot of it has come against lower-level hitters. Now he’ll be in the big leagues.
He’s struck out 282 and walked 93 in the minor leagues over 212.1 innings of work. The Mariners are definitely a strikeout-prone team, but they also work a lot of deep counts and they are less likely to chase the stuff that minor leaguers can’t lay off of. He has a 10.2% BB% in the minors with all of those extended plate appearances.
His Walks Allowed prop sits at 2.5, a number he exceeded in two of his five Double-A starts. Mix in the nerves of making his MLB debut and I think this is worth a look at plus money. The Mariners are third this month with a 10.4% BB%. They have a 10.7% BB% against lefties in the second half. I do think Aldegheri has the chance to rack up some punchies too, but pro hitters are a different beast and the Mariners don’t hit lefties well, so they know their patience is a virtue.
Pick: Samuel Aldegheri Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+150)
