MLB Best Bets Today August 9:
Sixteen games are on the MLB slate for Friday, as an enormous series between the Guardians and Twins begins with a split doubleheader. We’re at the point of the season where baseball will start to get overshadowed by football, even if it is just the preseason. I’m not sure that will have any impact given how efficient the market has become with all of the data points we have thus far in the season, but we’re very close to the “fall” portion of the sports betting calendar.
There aren’t many large favorites on the board for Friday, so hopefully we get a good, competitive slate of games.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 9:
San Diego Padres (-125, 8) at Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
There are a few different factors in play for this Padres and Marlins game that have pushed the line down a good bit from where it opened. The first is that market confidence in Martin Perez is generally low. The other is that Edward Cabrera has a 5.96 ERA with a 4.59 xERA and a 3.73 xFIP, so there are positive regression signs in the profile for him.
Well, here are my counters to those thoughts. The first is that Perez is facing a lineup that I don’t see sustaining the second-half pace of being an above average group. Since the Trade Deadline, the Marlins have a .299 wOBA and a 91 wRC+. Remember, their second-half numbers include guys that are no longer in the lineup like Bryan De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm, and Josh Bell.
Perez is going to a pitcher-friendly environment and his .342 BABIP is the highest of his career. I think he’s got a little bit of room to improve, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it happens with Ruben Niebla and the Padres coaching staff. In his first start, we saw fewer fastballs and sinkers, which is a good change already. Opposing batters have pummeled the few fastballs he has thrown and his sinker yields a lot of hits and hard contact with next to no swing-and-miss potential. The Padres had him rely more on the curveball, which has been his best pitch this season.
The Padres are a top-five lineup since the Trade Deadline, in the second half, and have cracked the top 10 for the season. Also, I’d stack their bullpen up against anybody’s. The Marlins traded their better relief arms, including Padres setup man Tanner Scott. The SD pen has gotten a ton of work lately, but the Marlins used seven relievers yesterday and four on Wednesday, so they’re not exactly rested themselves.
I think this price is a little light with the line move and worthy of taking a shot.
Pick: Padres -125
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals (-122, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Royals swept both games in St. Louis in the I-70 rivalry, so the Cardinals will be looking for a bit of revenge at Kauffman Stadium in this one. I’ll be looking for some spots to try and play against the Royals moving forward here, as they’ve maxed out their allotment of games against the White Sox. They went 12-1 against Chicago with a +43 run differential. Take those games away and the Royals are 52-51 on the season.
Obviously you can only play the teams that are on the schedule, but the Royals have decimated the White Sox. They still have a +51 run differential outside of games against Chicago, so I’m not denying that this is a solid ballclub, but I don’t think they’re as good as they’ve shown.
Michael Lorenzen certainly doesn’t seem to be, as he comes into this outing with a 3.69 ERA, but a 4.62 xERA and a 5.04 FIP in his 107.1 innings of work. His 6.8% K-BB% is the worst among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. His ERA-FIP is the fourth-highest, better than Andrew Abbott (-1.48), Ronel Blanco (-1.45), and Tyler Anderson (-1.40). Lorenzen has an 81% LOB% with just an 18.1% K% and also has the second-highest BB% among pitchers with at least 100 innings.
I’m not enamored with Mikolas, but at least his signs point in the other direction. He has a 5.12 ERA, but a 4.47 xERA and a 4.24 FIP in 128.1 innings of work. His 65.3% LOB% is the lowest of his career. He’s run on the low side in that department the last two seasons, so his low strikeout rate might just be catching up with him, but he’s a better pitcher than what he’s shown. Lorenzen’s numbers say the opposite.
I’ll take a shot with the Cardinals. I think the Royals are a bit of a paper tiger and we have opposing regression signs with the two pitchers.
Pick: Cardinals +102
