MLB Best Bets Today July 12:
The final weekend of the “first half” begins tonight with all 30 teams in action. We’re well into the second half by number of games, but the All-Star Break is treated as the line of demarcation between the first and second half in the minds of many and for many of the stat sites. It will be nice for the players to get away from the grind and I’m sure most bettors/handicappers are looking forward to a few days away from it.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 12:
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (-258, 8)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Nationals will recall Jackson Rutledge for this start and the Brewers will roll with ace Freddy Peralta as this weekend series gets underway. Rutledge has thrown one inning at the MLB level this season and has a 6.66 ERA with a 71/40 K/BB ratio over 71.2 innings at Triple-A. For those keeping track, that constitutes a 12.2% BB% in the minors this season.
That is not a good number heading into this matchup against Milwaukee. The Brewers have a 44.4% Swing% that ranks as the second-lowest in MLB. Per Statcast, their 25% O-Swing% is the lowest in baseball, so you could make a really strong case that this is the most disciplined lineup in baseball.
The Brewers have a 9.6% BB% for the year and it is actually 10.6% over the last 30 days against righties. The 25-year-old Rutledge owns a career 10.1% BB% in the minor leagues. One of the things that the Nationals have done an excellent job with this season is cutting down walk rates for guys like Jake Irvin (10.2% to 5.9%), MacKenzie Gore (9.8% to 8.5%), and Mitchell Parker (double digits in minors, 6.7% at AAA, 5.1% at MLB).
They’ve found no such success with Rutledge and I don’t see why that would change at the MLB level against a Brewers lineup that is really adept at drawing free passes. This reminds me a lot of the Roddery Munoz Walks Allowed lines that I was able to pick on a bit when he was called up.
Pick: Jackson Rutledge Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+130)
Minnesota Twins (-148, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
10:15 p.m. ET
The Twins begin a business trip on the West Coast with Friday night’s series opener against the Giants. Minnesota got rained out on Tuesday and made up the game on Wednesday in Chicago before heading out to San Francisco right before the Break. It will be Joe Ryan for the visitors and Kyle Harrison for the host team in this one.
The Twins have been one of the best teams in baseball since late May, going 29-17 over their last 46 games. I think they’re in good shape today as they draw a lefty in Harrison. Over the last 30 days, the Twins lead all of baseball with a .445 wOBA and a 196 wRC+ against southpaws. They are slashing .372/.434/.618 in that span with a K% under 15%.
This will be Harrison’s second start since returning from injury. He allowed four runs on four hits to the Guardians in Cleveland six days ago with four walks. He needed 72 pitches to get 10 outs and really didn’t locate well in any facet of that start. Against a Twins offense that has really been swinging it well for a while, including a league-leading .386 wOBA in July, it could be a very tough spot for him.
The one area where the Giants do excel has been hitting for some power. They’ve been better at it against lefties than righties, but Ryan is a guy that will allow some long balls. With the Twins 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at plus money, I think that’s a worthwhile look against Harrison as he tries to navigate his way through what is likely to be a tough start.
Pick: Twins 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)
