MLB Best Bets Today July 5:
With the 4th of July holiday now past, the MLB teams turn their focus towards the All-Star Break and some much needed time off. We still have over a week’s worth of baseball to be played, but there will be some teams that aren’t as present as others with that stretch looming.
As far as today goes, we have one day game on the North Side of Chicago and 14 night games with a 5-5-5 split between NL, AL, and Interleague matchups. These are officially the dog days of summer with a lot of heat and humidity and a lot of teams playing inconsistently in both leagues, so you’ll really want to do your research and planning.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 5:
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-142, 8)
7:05 p.m. ET
Tanner Houck and Nestor Cortes are the listed starters as another chapter of long-running AL East rivalry between the Red Sox and Yankees will be written at Yankee Stadium. This is only the second series of the season between these two teams, as Boston took two of three at Fenway Park in mid-June, so this is the first of 10 games between the two teams here in the second half of the season.
Houck comes in with impressive numbers, as he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 2.56 FIP over his 107.2 innings of work, but I am seeing a lot of red flags and reasons to be concerned. He just allowed eight runs on nine hits to the Padres last time out and surrendered three home runs. Over his last three starts, Houck has allowed eight Barrels. He has only allowed 18 Barrels for the season, so his command appears to be waning a bit.
Over his last four starts, he’s allowed a 50% Hard Hit% and three of those four starts have featured single-digit SwStr%. In fact, Houck has only had a double-digit SwStr% in three of his last 11 starts. This is a guy that has been hurt a lot and I’m always on the lookout for injury indicators. A drop in command like this is definitely one of them, but his vertical release point has also dropped in recent outings, a potential sign of fatigue. His horizontal release point has also been a little bit erratic, leading me to believe that he’s either fighting with his consistency and mechanics or looking for a way to throw that doesn’t hurt as much. Injured pitchers aren’t going to be as sharp.
On the Cortes side, he’s allowed six runs on 12 hits in his last 11.1 innings of work, but the Red Sox have been excellent against lefties for a while now. Despite a 27.7% K% over the last 30 days, they are fourth in wOBA at .358 and their .470 SLG also ranks fourth. Cortes has had a single-digit SwStr% in six of his last seven starts. I think that will cut down on Boston’s strikeout prowess against lefties and allow them to put a lot of balls in play off Cortes.
Since May 17, a span of nine starts, Cortes has allowed a 49.7% Hard Hit%. He just allowed three Barrels in his last start against the Blue Jays. I also think his home numbers are really ripe for regression, as there’s no reason to have a 5.63 ERA with a .372 wOBA against and then a 1.84 ERA with a .226 wOBA at a place like Yankee Stadium.
A lot of things can happen in the late innings at a place like Yankee Stadium, so I’ll go for the full-game Over 8 as opposed to the 1st 5 Over 4.5 at plus money, but I think either option is fine.
Pick: Red Sox/Yankees Over 8 (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-110, 8.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
NL West rivals get together at Petco Park on Friday as the Diamondbacks and Padres open up a weekend set. It will be Slade Cecconi for the Snakes and Randy Vasquez for the Friars on a picture perfect weather night in the Gaslamp Quarter.
I don’t necessarily see much of a difference between Cecconi and Vasquez. Cecconi has a 5.81 ERA with a 4.94 FIP in his 57.1 innings of work. He’s allowed four runs on 10 hits over his last seven innings after firing six shutout frames against the Nationals on June 18, but that outing came on the heels of allowing seven runs on 10 hits to the Angels. There isn’t a lot of consistency to his performances, which makes sense as largely a pitch-to-contact guy.
Vasquez has a 4.88 ERA with a 5.31 FIP in his 51.2 innings pitched. He’s allowed just one run on 10 hits over his last two starts covering nine innings. He, too, had a big blow-up with six runs on 12 hits on June 17. On the whole, though, Vasquez’s major blow-ups have been fewer and farther between.
So, this is more of a bet on what I believe is the better team and the better bullpen. Both offenses have performed at a high level against right-handed pitching lately, but the San Diego pen has been stronger over the course of the year. They’ve been better than Arizona’s over the last 30 days and on the whole.
Pick: Padres -110
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-142, 7)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Blue Jays kick off a road trip in Seattle with a matchup against the Mariners today. It will be Kevin Gausman for the visitors and Luis Castillo for the hosts at T-Mobile Park. The Jays have been in freefall mode. On June 16, they beat the Guardians to take two of three in the series and improve to 35-36. Since then, they are 4-12 and just lost three of four at home against the Astros.
The Jays got in around 8 p.m. PT after losing to Houston and this will be their first game outside the Eastern Time Zone since June 12 (Milwaukee). For a team that doesn’t seem all that engaged right now, I’m not sure this feels a whole lot like a business trip.
Of course, there are baseball elements to this handicap as well. Gausman has a 5.65 ERA with a 5.42 FIP over his last six starts covering 36.2 innings of work. He’s allowed nine home runs in that span with a 14.9% Barrel% and a 48.2% Hard Hit%. His contact management has been nowhere to be found.
Castillo, as we know, typically shines at home. He has a .285 wOBA against at home this season with a 3.19 ERA. He’s also held righties to a .207/.258/.346 slash overall and a .162/.205/.261 slash and a .208 wOBA at home in 118 plate appearances. Gausman has been better on the road, but Castillo has long been a different pitcher at T-Mobile Park than anywhere else, so I definitely have faith and confidence in him, whereas I don’t have much in Gausman or the Jays.
The other thing about Toronto is that they continue to miss Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, and Yimi Garcia, who were all huge parts of the bullpen last season. I like where Seattle’s bullpen is at and have no trust in Toronto’s.
I’m looking to fade the Blue Jays whenever I think it’s pertinent based on the price and I think today is one of those days.
Pick: Mariners -142
