MLB Best Bets Today June 14
We’ve got a 5-5-5 day in Major League Baseball with five games in the NL, five games in the AL, and five interleague matchups as the weekend gets underway. Five of the games in the traditional leagues are division matchups. It is striking how few there are nowadays since the schedule was changed, as a lot of them are reserved for early in the season and then in the month of September.
The latest installment of Yankees vs. Red Sox is definitely the highlight of those, but the surging Reds vs. the Brewers is another compelling series.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 14:
San Diego Padres (-112, 7.5) at New York Mets
7:10 p.m. ET
The Padres had a happy ending to their homestand, as they finished off a sweep of the A’s with a Jackson Merrill walk-off homer to secure the sweep and have a lighthearted cross-country flight to LaGuardia to open up a weekend set with the Mets. Both teams are playing better right now, as the Padres have won five of six and the Mets have won six of eight.
But, it is the Padres who should have the upper hand, especially in the starting pitcher department for this one. San Diego has fully harnessed the potential of right-hander Matt Waldron, MLB’s only knuckleballer, and he is on a real heater. Over his last six starts, Waldron has allowed seven earned runs on 24 hits with a 39/8 K/BB ratio. That’s good for a 1.78 ERA with a 2.07 FIP and he hasn’t allowed a homer in five straight outings, including starts in Atlanta and Cincinnati.
Waldron is about as much of a unicorn as you can get, as he throws his knuckler about 38% of the time, but also throws a low-90s fastball. This will be his first career start against the Mets, so they’ve never been able to stand in there against him.
It has been a tale of two seasons for Waldron, as he had a 5.82 ERA with a 4.50 FIP in his first seven starts. So, what has changed? His knuckleball usage is a big change, as he’s thrown it about 41% of the time in the last six starts compared to 35% in his first seven. He’s cut down on his sinker usage as well. Opposing batters are hitting .280 with a .380 SLG (.503 xSLG) on his sinker, so cutting down the usage of that pitch makes a ton of sense.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla has also manipulated his release point on the knuckleball to give it a little bit more tilt. Niebla actually had Waldron when he was just starting in the then Indians organization as a 18th-round pick out of Nebraska.
Manaea is having a respectable season with a 4.30 ERA and a 3.79 FIP, but he’s allowed 12 runs on 13 hits over his last two starts. He’s allowed six homers on the season and five of them have come in his last four starts. As a fly ball guy with the warmer weather, he’s struggling a bit with outcomes on the mistakes he has made.
Generally speaking, he’s struggling with command. He’s allowed a 53.4% Hard Hit% and a 15.5% Barrel% over his last four starts. The Padres have the third-lowest K% against lefties over the last 30 days and the most plate appearances against them in that span.
The Mets only have one left-handed reliever in Jake Diekman and the rest of the pen is right-handed. The Padres rank first with a 130 wRC+ against righties over the last 30 days, so I like the bullpen advantage that they are likely to have as well. Their primary relievers have been better recently than the Mets’ guys and San Diego’s hit righties well and that’s what they’ll face after Manaea.
Shop around, since you can get this number at better prices at some shops.
Pick: Padres -112
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 7.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Reds and Brewers square off in a big series for the NL Central, as Milwaukee starts the day 6.5 games clear of the Cardinals and seven games clear of the Reds. The Brewers are one of just five teams with a winning record in the NL, but the Reds have been charging pretty hard to get back in the race.
This game features Hunter Greene and Freddy Peralta, as both look to bounce back from rough outings. I watched a postgame interview with Peralta, who swore up and down that he is fine physically after having a big velocity drop in his last start. It was an odd start for him with five walks after walking a total of six batters in his previous five starts. He also allowed four runs in just 3.1 innings of work.
However, Peralta continued to do an excellent job of limiting hard contact. He’s had four straight starts with a Hard Hit% under 30% and sits at 32.7% for the season. In fact, seven of his last eight starts have featured a HH% under 30%. That is thoroughly impressive command, even if his outcomes have been a little bit inconsistent.
Greene has had back-to-back starts with decreased velo, so the Reds pushed him back a few days in hopes that a little extra rest would do the trick. He’s allowed nine runs over his last 12.2 innings, even though he still had 13 strikeouts with the decreased speed.
The difference for me here today is that the Brewers are the best team in baseball by batting runs on sliders. That is Greene’s top primary pitch and he’s really only a two-pitch pitcher with the fastball/slider combo. Milwaukee’s batting runs on sliders per Statcast of 25.2 is more than double any other team in baseball (Dodgers 12.4). This should be a pretty good matchup for them and there is no guarantee that Greene’s fastball velo comes back.
Even if it does, the Brewers are a solid 11th in batting runs against fastballs. The Reds are 12th, but they are 27th in batting runs against sliders. I’d expect Peralta to have a higher than average SL% tonight that should help him keep the Reds offense at bay.
Also, Peralta has held opponents to a .260 wOBA at American Family Field over 1,369 career plate appearances. That is the exact same wOBA he has allowed this season and he has a 40/5 K/BB ratio at home in 27.2 innings compared to a 52/21 K/BB ratio on the road in 43 innings.
I like the Brewers on the 1st 5 Run Line tonight at -0.5 (-105).
Pick: Brewers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-105)
