MLB Best Bets Today August 5:
A new week begins in Major League Baseball with nine games on the betting board. Four come from the NL and three from the AL as Monday brings a lighter schedule with travel days for a lot of teams. We only had eight games originally scheduled, but the Mets and Cardinals will play a one-off makeup game thanks to a rainout earlier this season.
That does make for a weird scheduling spot for both teams, as the Mets came in from Anaheim and will go back west to Denver to start a series with the Rockies tomorrow.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 5:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-122, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians
6:40 p.m. ET
Logan Allen returns to the big leagues as the Guardians and Diamondbacks fire up a three-game set at Progressive Field. It will be Zac Gallen for the visitors, but I’m not sure what Arizona will get from Gallen, who I think is a regression candidate. His strikeout stuff may not translate well against Cleveland, but the Guardians offense is pretty hit or miss and Gallen has potential against every offense.
However, I am not very keen on Allen, who made three starts in the minors and allowed eight runs on 13 hits over 16.1 innings. He didn’t strike out any of the 23 batters that he faced last time out and really is a BABIP-dependent pitcher, in that he’s not going to miss many bats and won’t have a high margin for error.
As it is, the D-Backs don’t strike out a whole lot anyway, but Allen will likely get even fewer whiffs than normal against this lineup. Over the last 30 days, Arizona is ninth in wOBA at .349 and eighth with a 126 wRC+. Overall, this has been the third-best offense in baseball since June 1 with a .350 wOBA.
At the MLB level this season, Allen has pitched to a 5.67 ERA, 5.54 xERA, and a 5.45 FIP in his 87.1 innings of work. With Tanner Bibee ailing and no Matthew Boyd or Alex Cobb just yet, the Guardians are pressed into using Allen. Many of his better outings came earlier in the season when the weather was cooler and it was a bit easier to be a pitch-to-contact guy.
I’m not sure what happens with Gallen or the bullpens here, as you can see a massive 1st 5 edge for Arizona at -140, but the full game is only -122. But, I do think the D-Backs can get to Allen and build out some early offense.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
