MLB Best Bets Today July 19:
Calling it the “second half” of the MLB season is a little bit ridiculous, as teams have played almost 100 games already, but the 162-game season rolls on as 28 teams return to the field today. One day game in Chicago throws off the balance, plus the Brewers and the Twins play a two-game series that starts tomorrow.
A lot of pitchers are on extended layoffs and collective offenses probably haven’t swung a bat a whole lot, so it can be tough betting the first time or two through the rotation, especially with the Trade Deadline looming in 11 days and a lot of anxieties about that.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 19:
New York Mets (-135, 8) at Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
The return to the field matters more to some teams than others and I think this is a prime example tonight. The Mets were playing some pretty good baseball heading into the Midsummer Classic with a 25-13 record since the start of June. If the playoffs started today, they would sneak in as the final Wild Card team in the NL. The Marlins would finish with the second-worst record in baseball.
With reports swirling that the Fish are going to trade Jazz Chisholm Jr., among others, and the fact that they have a lame-duck manager in Skip Schumacher, a guy who led them to the playoffs last season, I can’t imagine the vibes are good with the return to work on Friday.
There are other reasons I like the Mets. They’ve seemed to figure out how to fix Sean Manaea, who had a 2.02 ERA with a 3.67 FIP over his final six starts of the first half, posting 36 strikeouts over 35.2 innings with just eight earned runs allowed.
Meanwhile, Marlins starter Edward Cabrera worked seven innings and allowed nine runs on 10 hits, including five home runs. He allowed four homers in his start last weekend against the Reds.
Obviously all the bullpens are well-rested. Hopefully the Mets one holds up if they have a lead.
Pick: Mets -135
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8.5)
10:10 p.m. ET
The other angle I like to think about at this time of the season is backing a really good team that had hit a rough patch against a team that didn’t want the daily routine to end. In this case, I’m looking at the game between the Red Sox and Dodgers. Boston hit the Break having won 10 of the last 13. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had lost 10 of 15.
Injuries have played a big role for the Dodgers, but I also think that they just hit a lull in the season with a huge lead in the division. Those injury concerns are still there, but the younger guys that had taken over in key roles caught a breather this week and I think that’s a positive for them.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has nice numbers for the season, but he still allows a lot of hard, aerial contact and has a 5.18 ERA over his last six starts over the last five weeks. Pivetta racked up 20 strikeouts in his two starts before the Break against the Marlins and A’s, but those are two of the most whiff-prone lineups in baseball. He had 17 over his previous four starts covering 19.1 innings of work. The command profile for Pivetta concerns me against average to above average lineups and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he’s allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts, while the Marlins outing really helped his numbers.
Dodgers starter Gavin Stone strikes me as a guy that could’ve used a little extra rest and he got it with the Break. He also went a week between starts in his last two first-half outings. He struggled with a tough assignment against the Phillies, but I think he can bounce back here. He owns a solid 3.26 ERA with a 3.56 FIP for the season and has limited the opposition to a 34.4% Hard Hit% and a 4.8% Barrel%.
I think the Dodgers get back to business here and I think the Red Sox might stumble after playing at such a high level and now opening the second half a long way from home.
Pick: Dodgers -125
