MLB Best Bets Today July 29:
Plenty of trades are expected by Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline, so there are a lot of players and teams waiting with a hint of anxiety to see what will happen. Some of today’s starters are on the trade block, including Jameson Taillon and Jack Flaherty, so we’ll see if they end up getting scratched from their scheduled outings. These are tough days for everybody involved, as it is a business, but one played by human beings.
I’ll do a full Trade Deadline recap Tuesday night/Wednesday morning to highlight some of the biggest trades and what I think they mean going forward. For now, like everybody else, I’m staying tight to the news to see what breaks and when.
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We’ve got 12 games today, with one matinee in Baltimore thanks to a doubleheader and a bunch of night games otherwise.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 29:
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies (-142, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
Luis Gil and Zack Wheeler are the listed hurlers for tonight’s Yankees and Phillies matchup. After a trio of rocky outings in late June and one tough appearance in July, Gil has settled back in. The second favorite for Rookie of the Year per DraftKings comes into this start with a 3.10 ERA and a 3.52 FIP in his 107.1 innings of work. He’s allowed three runs on 13 hits in his last 17.2 innings of work with 22 strikeouts against just two walks.
All season, Gil has done well with limiting hard contact against with a 35.1% Hard Hit%. His Barrel% is up to 8.9%, and he has allowed a Barrel in each of his last eight starts, but his 3.28 xERA speaks to how well he’s done in other facets and he’s really cut down on the walks recently. The Phillies offense is at full strength right now, but they struggled in the series against Cleveland, aside from one big inning off of Carlos Carrasco. They are 21st with a .299 wOBA here in the second half.
The Yankees lead MLB in wOBA in the second half, but today they run into Wheeler, who gave up eight runs to the Orioles on June 16 and has allowed a total of eight runs over his last five starts. Clearly Wheeler has gotten back on track and he fired seven shutout innings against the Twins on two weeks rest coming out of the All-Star Break. He has a 2.55 ERA with a 3.22 FIP and a 2.94 xERA.
Wheeler has only allowed a 31.6% Hard Hit% and a 7.3% Barrel% on the year, so he grades out as elite in the HH% department and has been better than the league average in Barrel%. He also has 133 strikeouts against just 37 walks.
I like both of these bullpens a lot, especially Philly’s adding Carlos Estevez from the Angels. The Yankees pen got a ton of work in on Friday and Saturday, but yesterday’s blowout win gave the unit a chance to regroup.
Pick: Yankees/Phillies Under 9 (-115)
Minnesota Twins at New York Mets (-115, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Interleague action between the Twins and Mets has piqued my interest for today, as Simeon Woods Richardson is slated to get the start against Jose Quintana. For all of the recent hype about the Mets, the Twins still have a better record and a much higher run differential, so I think they’re being a bit undervalued tonight, while the Mets are being a little bit overvalued in general.
Woods Richardson has been good with a 3.27 ERA and a 3.56 FIP in his 88 innings of work. He hasn’t walked more than two batters since mid-June and hasn’t allowed more than three runs since that start back on the 14th. He threw six shutout innings against a good Phillies lineup in his first start of the second half.
Also, Statcast is much kinder to Woods Richardson than it is to Quintana, who has a 5.22 xERA and a .280 xBA, both ranking in the Bottom 7%. Quintana has a 4.02 ERA with a 5.06 FIP, so there are a ton of negative regression signs in the profile for him. He allowed four homers to the Rockies in his July 14 start and teetered with disaster last time out against the Yankees, as he walked five over five innings, but managed to only allow one run.
The Twins are a top-five offense against lefties for the season and recently got back Royce Lewis, who has a .429 BA and an .821 SLG against lefties in a small sample this season. They have been a different team with him in the lineup and hopefully we can take advantage for however long he’s actually there before the next injury pops up.
The Twins pen has struggled recently, but this is a top-10 bullpen by FIP for the season. The Mets have had a lot of moving pieces and parts in their pen. I like Minnesota today.
Pick: Twins -105
