MLB Best Bets Today June 24
It will be a busy Monday to kick off the week with 12 games and all of them are at night. That won’t stop the heat from being a factor in some games, especially Kansas City, with temps near 100 at first pitch. We still have six days left this month, but here are the monthly splits.
March/April: .240/.314/.385, .308 wOBA, 921 HR, 22.5% K%, 8.7% BB%
Top MLB Resources:
May: .239/.307/.388, .306 wOBA, 846 HR, 22.1% K%, 8.0% BB%
June: .247/.314/.408, .317 wOBA, 713 HR, 21.8% K%, 7.9% BB%
Home runs and slugging percentage are up considerably. Strikeouts are down, leading to a better batting average. The warmer weather has definitely had an impact on offense.
For context, if we look at last season, the SLG by month was .405, .413, .411, so it was a lot more consistent and I’m sure the average temperatures were pretty similar. The ball may be a little different this season. Pitchers are also attacking hitters differently with more elevated fastballs and fewer fastballs in general. I guess we’ll see how it all plays out, but hitters may be adjusting.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 24:
Atlanta Braves (-120, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET
The Braves and Cardinals open up a three-game series at Busch Stadium in this one and it is quite a contrasting pitching matchup. Spencer Schwellenbach makes his fifth career MLB start with a total of 21.2 innings to his name. Lance Lynn makes his 333rd MLB start with 1,964 innings on his ledger.
I’ve been really impressed with Schwellenbach to this point. He has a 4.98 ERA, but a 3.62 xERA and a 3.98 FIP. He briefly qualified for the MLB Percentile Rankings last week and ranks in the 100th percentile in Chase%. He gets awesome Extension for a 6-foot-1 pitcher and I think he’s a very difficult matchup the first time around with six pitches in his arsenal and just a 26% four-seam fastball rate.
Schwellenbach has only allowed one Barrel through four starts and has a 13.7% SwStr% per Sports Info Solutions. He’s been at 11.2% or higher in each of his four starts with that deep arsenal. He’s getting whiffs inside and outside the zone, and while you don’t see the benefits of that from his actual K%, it means he’s pitching ahead in counts or working back into counts.
Meanwhile, Lynn is just a dude. He has a 4.08 ERA with a 4.30 xERA and a 4.08 FIP. He has an 84 Stuff+ and only his slider grades as an above average pitch by that metric. His best pitch by run value has been his fastball, but the Braves, for all of their offensive shortcomings this season, are hitting fastballs well in June. They are eighth in batting runs against four-seamers over the first 23 days of the month. Lynn’s fastball usage is 42.1% this season.
I really like the upside of Schwellenbach and think the Braves are still a quality ballclub. The Cardinals are playing better, but I find Lynn to be a weak link. Both bullpens are on equal footing from a usage standpoint, but the Braves pen generates more swings and misses and I like that fallback option late if necessary.
Pick: Braves -120
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals (-250, 9.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
I’m going to take a shot with something I haven’t done yet this season. Roddery Munoz gets the start today for the Marlins and I’m looking at a player whose expected metrics are well above his actual metrics and I’m seeing a trend that I think could make for a profitable bet tonight.
Vinnie Pasquantino is not really having the year that the Royals envisioned, but he’s gotten remarkably unlucky this season. He has a xSLG of .472 with an actual SLG of .402. He has a .310 wOBA and a .355 xwOBA. His xSLG actually ranks in the 80th percentile and his xwOBA ranks in the 81st percentile. He’s a far better hitter than what his numbers show this season.
Munoz has allowed a .298/.375/.772 slash and eight of his 11 homers against lefties in 64 plate appearances. Lefties have a .477 wOBA against him. Pasquantino has hit six of his seven homers against righties this season.
But here’s what I also like. Pasquantino has actively been trying to hit the ball in the air more. His fly ball percentage by month is 38.5%, 42.9%, 58.7%. On a day where first-pitch temps are going to be in the upper 90s with humid weather and the wind blowing out, I think all the conditions are ripe for Pasquantino to hit one out of the park.
Munoz tilts to the fly ball side, but only has a 5.6% infield fly ball percentage. Pasquantino has hit a lot of pop ups lately, but Munoz doesn’t induce a lot of them. I think this is worth a shot at +425, along with some of the other props for Pasquantino, like his Hits + Runs + RBI or other things of that sort.
Shop around on this one. A Yes/No prop is also the same as Over 0.5.
Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
