MLB Best Bets Today September 16:
We start a new week in Major League Baseball with a 10-pack of games. Half of them come from the Senior Circuit, as 12 of the 20 teams in action are National League squads. We do have two big series in the AL Central getting underway tonight among the three AL games and, in fact, all five ALC teams take the field.
We’ve also got nothing but night games today, so there is plenty of time to survey the card before locking in what you like.
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Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 16:
Philadelphia Phillies (-112, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 p.m. ET
Division leaders square off as the Phillies and Brewers open up a weekday series at American Family Field. It will be Ranger Suarez in his fifth start since returning from the IL and Aaron Civale, who has a 3.84 ERA with a 4.69 FIP in his 11 starts with the Brew Crew. Civale has thrown the ball really well of late, allowing just eight runs over his last five starts and 10 over his last six. It seems like the Brewers have unlocked his potential.
However, I see a lot of unsustainable trends in that six-start stretch. So do the stats, with a 2.67 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. He’s allowed just a .217 BABIP with an 84.5% LOB%. He’s allowed a 44.8% Hard Hit% and a 9.4% Barrel%, which are both well above the league average. He’s actually allowed five Barrels in his last two starts and has a 43.8% Hard Hit% or higher in five of those six starts.
Suarez has a 4.19 ERA with a 3.58 FIP in his four starts since returning. He ran on the bad side of batted ball luck last time out with 12 hits allowed, but he’s only allowed two homers with an 18/6 K/BB ratio in 19.1 innings. He’s only allowed a 26.2% Hard Hit% and a 4.9% Barrel% in those four starts.
So, I expect the Phillies to have better contact quality tonight and hopefully that will lead to some offensive upside. But, that isn’t the only reason I like Philly tonight. The Brewers used five relievers yesterday for 139 pitches. Trevor Megill has worked four of the last six days. Jared Koenig has thrown 43 pitches over the last three days. Devin Williams has had a couple days off, but he threw 53 pitches Tuesday-Friday. The Milwaukee pen has worked a lot harder lately than the Phillies pen.
I’ll take my shot with Philly tonight. Shop around, as you can find this one a few cents better around the market.
Pick: Phillies -112
