MLB Best Bets Today April 13
It is about as busy of a day as you will see in Major League Baseball. There are 17 games on the schedule with doubleheaders in Detroit and Cleveland. Each day is a chance to get new data points on the hitters and pitchers, as teams are really getting into the flow of the season by this point. Days like today give us a lot of them to analyze going forward, so even if you don’t have a bet on a game, it is still a good idea to check in on what happened.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 13:
Los Angeles Angels (-112, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox
4:10 p.m. ET
Griffin Canning and Cooper Criswell are the expected starters for this matchup at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. Things are not going all that well for the Red Sox right now, as a whole lot of shoddy defense is being played behind the pitching staff. Ever since Trevor Story went out, the team has completely collapsed on the fielding side of things.
The offense struggled mightily yesterday against Reid Detmers, who is off to an unbelievable start, but they should have a better chance today against Canning. It will be Canning’s second straight start against the Sox, but this one will happen at Fenway, which is second to Coors Field annually in terms of park factor. It won’t be warm today, but a good breeze will be blowing out to right center field and that represents a major problem for Canning.
To this point in the season, Canning has allowed a 45.7% Hard Hit% and seven barrels (20%). Canning allowed a 9.8% Barrel% last season and a 42.4% Hard Hit%, so he’s working on his second straight season with major command problems. To make matters worse this season, he only has a 13% K% through two starts, including four strikeouts out of 23 batters faced against Boston last time out.
Canning has allowed nine runs on 12 hits with four homers and four walks against six strikeouts. The quality of his stuff simply is not there. Also, he has a 25.7% GB% on the year. Being a fly ball pitcher at Fenway Park is not a sound strategy.
He’s also been really inefficient with his pitches, as he has a 40.6% Ball% and has needed 96 and 91 pitches to get 15 and 14 outs, respectively. Now he’s at Fenway on a day with the wind blowing out and his Outs Recorded prop sits at 16.5 with the juice at -105. Canning went over 16.5 outs in 11 of his 22 starts last season, but remember that virtually all of them came in better pitching environments.
I think he could have a tough day today and the fact that he’s facing this team for the second time with a plan of attack that didn’t work in the first outing makes it really hard for him to work deep into the game.
Pick: Griffin Canning Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Logan Webb and Ryan Pepiot come together for one of the top pitching matchups on the card today. Webb has struggled a bit with his location while facing two very familiar foes in the Padres (2x) and Dodgers. Pepiot has had one good start (Rockies) and one bad start (Rangers) to open up the season.
I have some bigger concerns at present regarding Webb than I do Pepiot. Both pitchers are players in really smart organizations, so I know that both guys will be extremely well-prepared for this game, but Webb has a real lack of swing and miss right now. He opened the year with a 12.4% SwStr% against the Padres, but had a 4.2% SwStr% against the Dodgers and a 3.5% SwStr% against the Padres in his second start against them. He also had Zone% marks of 29.9% and 30.2% in his first two starts before posting a 51.8% Zone% in his last start.
In that last start, Webb only allowed two runs, but he surrendered 10 hits. Thus far, the Giants ace has allowed batting averages over .300 on each of his three primary pitches. Some of that is bad luck, but a lot of that is location. He’s allowed a 39.3% Hard Hit% overall and a 46.2% HH% in his last two starts. I will grant that he’s faced two lineups that have seen him a lot and the Rays really have not, but still. His location has been problematic.
Pepiot’s outstanding start against Colorado probably deserves an asterisk because it is the Rockies, but he also did it at Coors Field. He struck out 11 and only allowed three hits over six innings. In the game against Texas, Pepiot got a bit unlucky with batted balls and made his own problems with four walks. He was much sharper with some good adjustments in that second start.
Here’s ultimately why I like the Rays 1st 5 here. Webb is allowing a lot of balls in play and they’re on the ground, which can be very volatile. Pepiot is working up in the zone with fastballs at 95+ and that’s a tough thing for a hitter to do damage with, especially at Tropicana Field, where the ball doesn’t carry very well.
The Giants are 25th in batting runs vs. four-seam fastballs per Statcast, so I don’t think that pairs well against Pepiot.
The reason I’m going with the 1st 5 here is because the Rays’ primary relievers have worked three of the last four days and Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, and Phil Maton all worked yesterday. Their lesser arms may be called upon, while the Giants have a full complement of available arms.
But, I do like Pepiot against this lineup and think the Rays will have more chances to score early in this one, so it’ll be Rays 1st 5.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 (-110)
St. Louis Cardinals (-112, 10) at Arizona Diamondbacks
8:10 p.m. ET
The Cardinals and Diamondbacks played an interesting game yesterday, as St. Louis jumped out to a 6-0 lead and beat up on Brandon Pfaadt, only to give up six runs in the bottom of the fifth. I wish it would’ve been seven, as the Diamondbacks 1st 5 run line lost, but Arizona showed some good fight coming back before ultimately losing 9-6.
Arizona has done well against lefties this season, but tonight might be a welcomed sight, as they finally face a righty in Kyle Gibson. Five of the last six games for the Snakes have featured a left-handed starter, and while they’ve committed to getting better in that area, they were much better against righties last season.
Not only that, but they get a subpar righty in Gibson, who has allowed nine runs on 11 hits in 13 innings of work to the Padres (two runs) and Marlins (seven runs). Gibson has allowed a 48.7% Hard Hit% through two starts and has surrendered six barreled balls for a 15.4% Barrel%. He only has a .229 BA against despite all the hard contact, as Statcast has him down for a .340 xBA and a .656 xSLG based on the quality of contact against.
He’s allowed a .349 wOBA, but has a .435 xwOBA to his name. The Diamondbacks aren’t going to swing and miss often here and they don’t chase a whole lot either. Gibson has a 90.5% Z-Contact% on the season and I fully expect Arizona to get some good swings against him.
I did go back and forth between the Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 at -125 and the Diamondbacks to win the game, but Ryne Nelson is also a pitch-to-contact type of guy. While I see some modest changes to his profile that intrigue me (and Brent Strom is kind of a miracle worker), I don’t trust him enough to take the chance.
But, I do trust Arizona’s offense to put a lot of balls in play and have run-scoring opportunities. Because he doesn’t walk a lot of guys, Gibson is usually pretty efficient with his pitches, which means he often works deep into games and turns lineups over. That means that Arizona should have some chances. Gibson has allowed seven runs the first time through the order and Arizona’s aggressiveness with attacking pitches should help them early in this one as well.
Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
